Macau’s projected population for 2040 has been revised downward, from 808,000 to 783,000. The new estimate forms part of the first amendment to the Macau SAR Master Plan, currently under public consultation, and serves as the basis for changes to the designated use of several plots on the reclaimed land.
Zone C, covering approximately 33 hectares and previously earmarked for residential and commercial development, is expected to be redesignated for public facilities. It is on this reclaimed area that the Government plans to build the International Museum of Contemporary Art and the International Performing Arts Center, both of which will form part of a new international tourism and cultural district.
The National Museum of Macau Culture is planned for Zone B. Meanwhile, land in Zone E1 and along Wai Long Avenue, previously reserved for housing, will be rezoned for commercial and industrial use, respectively, to accommodate the future Macao Sci-Tech Park.
The changes are justified by the need for economic diversification and the major public projects currently in preparation. The Executive also expects Macau’s total land area to increase from the current 34.85 to 36.96 square kilometers by 2040.
Forecast model leaves Hengqin out
Macau has “long faced a low birth rate, accompanied by persistently weak natural population growth.” With demographic aging and deeper integration into the Greater Bay Area, the analyst believes that “slower population growth and demographic aging will become long-term structural norms.”
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According to Kot, this shift has “completely changed the previous planning logic,” yet the current forecasting model does not fully account for the growing integration between Macau and Hengqin.
“Macau’s current population forecasting system uses the resident population within the territory as its statistical reference, covering only those officially registered as local residents,” he told PLATFORM. “Macau residents who move to Hengqin are excluded from the resident population count and are completely omitted from forecasting models.”
Kot stresses that relocating one’s residence does not mean demand for services in Macau disappears. “This group continues to make sustained and stable use of the full spectrum of Macao’s public resources, resulting in a substantial underestimation of demand.”
Housing is one of the areas where the analyst identifies the greatest distortion. Although moving to Hengqin may free up housing units in Macau, many families retain their properties in the city, reducing market turnover.
“Under the current population framework, housing supply projections are based solely on residents living in Macau and do not take into account the additional demand created by idle properties and cross-border living arrangements,” he says. According to Kot, this flaw results in “an overall underestimation of housing demand of around 15% to 25%.”
The analyst estimates that the discrepancy could widen “as residential facilities in Hengqin improve while the housing price gap between the two regions persists.”
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“If the cross-border population is not incorporated into forecasting models as a ‘resource-consuming population,’ the underestimation in urban planning over the coming decade will continue to grow and could exceed 30%,” he warns.
Fewer homes, greater risk
Nelson Kot believes that the revision of the Master Plan could “unlock additional potential for the development of the cultural and tourism industries” and “strengthen Macau’s position as a World Centre of Tourism and Leisure.” At the same time, he identifies “fundamental costs and risks,” particularly in light of the reduction in land designated for housing.
“The contraction in housing supply will worsen the structural shortage of residential units essential for local residents,” he says, describing this as “the most critical risk affecting living conditions.”
The analyst also points to “uncertain returns from cultural and tourism development, associated with the long recovery cycle of public investment,” as well as “the risk of imbalance between regional facilities and environmental carrying capacity.”
For Kot, revising demographic projections should therefore involve more than counting the population formally residing within Macau.
“The Macao SAR Government should review the criteria used in its population forecasts,” he argues. The analysis, he adds, should include the effects of deeper integration between Macau and Hengqin on “housing, transport, education, social infrastructure, consumption patterns, differences in the prices of goods and real estate, and public facilities.”
