This forecast is included in the proposed budget for the semi-autonomous Chinese region for the coming year, which the government submitted to the local parliament, the Legislative Assembly (AL), on Wednesday.
The target set by the government represents a 3.5% increase compared to the revised budget for 2025, which was approved by the AL in July and reduced the gaming revenue forecast to 228 billion patacas (24.6 billion euros).
In the explanatory note accompanying the budget proposal, the government states that since May, Macau has seen “robust growth in tourist numbers,” and casino revenues “have maintained a stable growth trend.”
The number of tourists visiting the region rose by 14.5% by September, while gaming revenues increased by 8% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, reaching 205.4 billion patacas (22.2 billion euros).
This, the government emphasized, “contributed to the sustained progress of Macau’s global economy,” which is highly dependent on the tourism and casino sectors.
The territory’s economy grew by 8% year-on-year in the third quarter, a 2.9 percentage point increase from the second quarter, after recording the first decline in two years between January and March.
“Looking ahead to 2026, it is forecasted that Macau’s tourism industry will continue its growth trajectory, supported by various favorable factors,” the government stated.
However, the 3.5% increase in casino revenues is significantly lower than the growth rate (8%) recorded so far this year, which the government attributes to a “principle of prudent financial management.”
On Tuesday, after presenting the Government Action Lines for 2026, Macau’s Chief Executive, Sam Hou Fai, warned about “the instability of the external environment and the economic situation.”
At a press conference, Sam asserted that relations between China and the United States “are recovering” from recent trade tension episodes, but he did not rule out the possibility of a global “economic recession.”
As the world capital of gambling, Macau is the only place in China where casino gambling is legal.
The six casino operators in the city pay a direct tax of 35% on gaming revenues, with 2.4% allocated to Macau’s Social Security Fund and urban and tourism development, and 1.6% going to the Macau Foundation for cultural, educational, scientific, academic, and philanthropic purposes.
Direct taxes on casino revenues accounted for 83.3% of the region’s public revenues in the first ten months of 2025, totaling 77.5 billion patacas (8.37 billion euros).
