– Agoda recently reported growing interest in Macau from markets such as the Middle East and India. Despite this, does Macau remain too dependent on Mainland China?
Niall Murray – I analysed Agoda’s specific claim and yes, searches from the Middle East for Macau have increased. But “interest” is not an arrival. When you look at the official visitor statistics for 2025, the Middle East does not even appear as a separately reported source market. International visitors, in total, accounted for only around 6.8% of all arrivals, approximately 2.7 million people out of a total of 40.06 million. Mainland China alone accounts for 70 to 72%. Hong Kong and Taiwan add more than 20%. So the international segment is residual, and the Middle East is a fraction of that residual figure.
There are three factors preventing conversion: the absence of direct flights from the Gulf, a drop in passenger traffic at Macau International Airport — down 1.6% in 2025 — and the lack of a large-scale halal ecosystem. Until Emirates or Etihad land in Macau, actual bookings from the Middle East will continue to go to Singapore, Manila and Seoul.
– After working in some of the world’s largest integrated resorts, what do you feel Macau is still missing outside gaming?
N.M. – The city has excellent infrastructure. Venetian, Londoner, Parisian, Galaxy, Wynn, MGM Cotai — the physical assets are world-class. What is missing is cohesive destination planning that values non-gaming and places it prominently in the visitor journey.
In Las Vegas, you can spend three days without entering a casino. In Singapore, Marina Bay Sands was designed with a strict cap on gaming space. Macau still predominantly channels people flows through gaming areas in order to reach a restaurant or a show. That works for the Mainland China mass market, but it puts off families and international leisure tourists.
The specific missing piece is a climate-controlled, non-gaming anchor attraction in Cotai that is not owned by an operator. Something like a permanent culture or entertainment district that competes for attention, not just gaming revenue.
Read also: Macau smashes tourism records with 11 million visitors
– You have said that Macau’s diversification strategy remains vague. What should change?
N.M. – A comprehensive strategy would involve all stakeholders from the public and private sectors in drafting, continuously reviewing and implementing a complete action plan. A comprehensive strategy needs three concrete actions, not just mission statements.
It is built for land borders, not airports. It markets to Guangdong, not the Gulf. Success is measured by overall arrival numbers, not by yield per visitor. That is a structural trap
First, fix air access. The Government should offer landing fee waivers and marketing subsidies to any Gulf or Southeast Asian airline that opens a direct route to Macau. There is no international diversification without direct air links.
Second, create a multilingual one-stop shop for international tour operators. Right now, organising a non-gaming itinerary is more difficult than it should be. That desk should handle heritage visits, show tickets and MICE logistics with the same efficiency as a top integrated resort operator.
Third, link tax benefits to verifiable results. The six concessionaires should receive benefits only for overnight international arrivals and the share of non-gaming revenue, not total volume. Right now, the incentives are too vague and too easy to manipulate with Mainland China day-tripper traffic.
– How should integrated resorts adapt to a younger, experience-driven visitor who often does not stay overnight?
N.M. – The 2025 data is brutal on this point. 58% of all visitors were day-trippers, up 25.5% year-on-year. They spend MOP 673. Overnight visitors spend MOP 3,663, but that group grew by only 2.8%. So volume is exploding in the low-value segment, while the higher-value overnight segment is virtually stagnant.
Adaptation means three things. First, stop designing only for the VIP segment. Create non-gaming experiences, dining, live music and art-related pop-ups that do not require a gaming card for access. Second, invest in MICE and events, but build a year-round calendar of concerts, e-sports and food festivals. Third, reconfigure the physical experience of integrated resorts. Gaming should not be the first thing you see when you enter. Put non-gaming attractions in prominent positions. Make gaming a destination within the destination, not the gateway.
The six concessionaires should receive benefits only for overnight international arrivals and the share of non-gaming revenue, not total volume
– What lessons should Macau draw from regional competitors such as Singapore, the Philippines and Thailand?
N.M. – Three lessons, one from each market. From Singapore, integration. Marina Bay Sands was designed with a regulatory cap on gaming space in relation to non-gaming. That forced creativity. Macau never did that and is now trying to catch up.
From the Philippines, accessibility. Manila and Clark have direct flights from practically all of Asia, lower costs and a more flexible regulatory environment. Hann Casino Clark and Newport World Resorts are aggressively targeting the same international customers Macau wants, and they are winning on price and convenience.
From Thailand — if it legalises casinos — cultural branding. Thailand will wrap its casinos in Thai food, hospitality and design. Macau still struggles to articulate a clear cultural identity. That is a brand problem, not a regulatory problem.
Some industry executives have argued that regional competitors cannot match Macau’s leadership because of scale and service. I think that is complacent. Scale means nothing if yield per visitor is falling. Macau will always have unparalleled tourism from Mainland China; however, it should worry about a combined Singapore-Philippines-Thailand corridor, with direct flights and a better non-gaming offer.
Read also: Macau: economy grows 7.1%; driven by tourism
– Ten years from now, can Macau become a truly diversified destination or will it remain structurally dependent on gaming?
N.M. – Macau is currently too structurally locked into gaming, unless the Government and the concessionaires accept a higher level of short-term sacrifice than they have accepted so far.
Here is why. When 58% of visitors are day-trippers from Mainland China, the entire logistics chain optimises for volume. It is built for land borders, not airports. It markets to Guangdong, not the Gulf. Success is measured by overall arrival numbers, not by yield per visitor. That is a structural trap.
Diversification requires accepting lower total visitor numbers while yield increases. It requires subsidising direct flights for years before profitability. It requires building non-gaming attractions that genuinely compete with the casino floor for attention and capital investment.
I do not see that happening soon, certainly not 65% non-gaming by 2028. The quarterly earnings pressure on listed integrated resorts is too intense, and the Government’s fiscal base is too dependent on gaming revenue.
So my forecast for 2036 is this: Macau will be the most efficient and technologically advanced gaming hub in the world. It will do what it does better than anywhere else. But it will not be the diversified, family-friendly and lifestyle destination promised in the 2022 concession tenders. It will remain a city of casinos, just with better air conditioning and facial recognition.
