We are already entering the summer atmosphere, a kind of pre-season period in which politics goes on holiday and the only serious topic is the highly publicized case involving former lawmaker Au Kam Sam. A case that, incidentally, has little to do with the lives of the population at large or with the city’s economic dynamics.
It is an important moment because, being the first case of its kind, it will allow us to understand how the Central Government views the implementation of the National Security Law in the Macao Special Administrative Region; and, by extension, how the West – particularly Portugal – views Macau within that context. Given its importance, that is all it represents.
We will return from this period with the same problems as always: dependence on gaming, a troubling inability to make meaningful progress in economic diversification, and a foreign relations mission that, in reality, lacks practical substance and consequences. And this is not the fault of the Macau Forum, the Government, or Santa Claus. The reality is that it is becoming increasingly difficult to understand where the critical mass and capital needed to launch projects capable of changing the profile of employment and the composition of GDP can be found.
As I write these lines, I am reminded of so many others I have drafted over the past few years in the same context. But it is not quite the same. First, because every passing day is another day in which nothing happens; and second, because after entering a new cycle, following Beijing’s assertive discourse on the need for change, and after a strategic plan was presented that pointed toward a direction and a path forward, seeing little or nothing happen is no longer merely an observation. It has become embarrassing – even distressing – because expectations are being trapped in a dead end with no clear horizon.
The best example of this new dynamic is the gaming operators, which may even seem contradictory. But ultimately, after Covid-19, they are the ones setting an example for transformation, moving away from a business model centered on dealers toward organizations with fewer inefficiencies, greater efficiency, and stronger EBITDA performance. They are also the only ones currently releasing investment capital, aside from the state funds that are now being established.
