However much Rubio insists that nothing has changed regarding Taiwan, several signs point in precisely the opposite direction. Starting with Trump, a beacon of global instability, who made it clear on leaving Beijing that the Strait lies far beyond his own sphere of influence — and outside his military sights.
Meanwhile, the freezing of sales of cutting-edge weapons to Taipei has prompted debate on the island about developing its own defence industry. Sooner or later, however, it will also encourage the more sensible option: make business — not war. It will also soon become clear what opportunities China is prepared to offer the extensive business delegation that accompanied Trump, beginning with his relatives and friends.
Trump has handed Ukraine over to Europe, following the path of an undisguised friendship with Putin; he barely controls Netanyahu; and he is obsessed with Cuba, where he wants to land as soon as he escapes the Middle Eastern quagmire into which he is sinking.
There, he still dreams of the Abraham Accords, which today look more like a nightmare. Eventually, however, he will realise that the Arab monarchies are already looking towards Türkiye, Russia and China within a new, multipolar security framework. More than ever, Trump needs — and wants — an understanding with Xi Jinping.
In Beijing, by contrast, the agenda is stable and predictable: business, naturally; commercial globalisation and, preferably, cooperation with the United States — make business, not war. The world will be grateful, provided common sense prevails. Meanwhile, as clear as crystal, reunification remains a priority.
Trump today has neither the moral authority nor any genuine interest in this conflict, provided Xi guarantees him business, chips and technology
The blunders committed by Trump and Netanyahu have stripped the Atlantic alliance of the legitimacy to impose anything on China, particularly within Beijing’s own sphere of influence. Europe has more urgent concerns and needs China to counterbalance the madness coming from the West. In this context, Japan, South Korea and Australia are in no position to block Beijing’s steps towards Taipei.
“We must win the hearts” of the Taiwanese people, Xi Jinping says, recognising that younger generations are moving further away from reunification. He stresses the bonds of kinship through expressions such as “blood is thicker than water”, but above all invites Taiwan to share in the mainland’s economic development.
The West accuses Beijing of maintaining a military threat. Xi Jinping, however, insists that the use of force is not directed against Taiwan’s “brothers and sisters”, but against “foreign interference” and the “small minority of separatists”.
What changes now? The world itself; the way Taipei looks at the new disorder, and the opportunity that Beijing sees opening in the Strait. Trump today has neither the moral authority nor any genuine interest in this conflict, provided Xi guarantees him business, chips and technology. Never has an American president been so transparent. For Beijing, that is a small price to pay for a dream it values so dearly. Provided it is achieved peacefully, few now have either the courage or the arguments to oppose it.
If Trump concludes that this is not his problem and leaves the “brothers” across the Strait to reach an understanding, what is the best solution for Taipei? Make business — not war. It does not need to be formal or rushed. Taiwan’s hearts are hardly in love with Beijing and, long before reunification, there is a long march of rapprochement to complete. What is certain is that Trump’s world is opening that road — and Xi will undoubtedly travel it, perhaps sooner than many expect.
