“For now, it appears that the summer will proceed without problems in terms of access to fuel supplies,” IATA’s Regional Vice President for Europe, Rafael Schvartzman, told Lusa.
In an interview, Schvartzman stressed that current assessments indicate there is “sufficient capacity in Europe for the summer,” although forecasts remain limited in scope.
“Our forecasts and assessments are reliable within a four- to six-week horizon. Therefore, we are constantly monitoring the situation with our team and with fuel suppliers,” he explained.
Earlier Concerns Have Eased
In April, IATA warned that flight cancellations in Europe could occur by the end of May if aviation fuel supply constraints worsened, amid pressure on global supply chains and uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
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Asked whether that risk had materialized, Schvartzman said that, “at this stage,” conditions have improved compared to the period of greatest uncertainty.
“At the beginning of the conflicts in the Middle East, there were obviously very high levels of uncertainty. Some aspects have, let’s say, improved,” he said.
Among those factors, he highlighted the option of sourcing aviation fuel from the United States, where Jet A fuel is predominantly used. It is similar to Jet A-1, the standard fuel for most international operations, though there are technical differences, particularly regarding freezing points.
“The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has already issued a safety information bulletin providing guidance on the use of Jet A imported from the United States,” he said.
U.S. Supply Remains a Backup Option
Schvartzman added that the United States has the capacity to export fuel from the East Coast but noted that, as far as he knows, such imports have not yet been necessary.
“To the best of my knowledge, there has been no need so far to import Jet A. But that is probably one of the variables being considered for the future,” he said.
According to the IATA official, the option could become more relevant if future assessments point to greater supply difficulties, particularly toward the end of the year.
“Potentially in the last quarter of the year, there could be some shortages,” he acknowledged, while cautioning that “it is still far too early to say” whether such a scenario will materialize.
“Indeed, it may become necessary to import some Jet A to compensate or to ensure that sufficient fuel is available,” he added.
Strategic Reserves and Refining Capacity
Asked about the contrast between April’s warnings and the current outlook, Schvartzman pointed to mandatory fuel reserves within the European Union and adjustments made by countries with refining capacity.
“There is a reserve obligation within the EU, and that certainly helps,” he said, noting that some countries have also managed to increase Jet A-1 production volumes.
“Spain is relatively well positioned in terms of refining capacity,” he said, adding that this capability could help supply other European countries.
Rising Fuel Costs Push Up Ticket Prices
While dismissing the risk of summer fuel shortages for now, IATA warned that rising fuel costs are already affecting airline pricing.
Schvartzman said fuel, which previously accounted for around 25% to 30% of airlines’ operating costs, now represents more than 40%.
“Today, we estimate that figure is above 40%, potentially reaching 45% or 46% of operating costs. Therefore, this will definitely have a direct impact on prices,” he said.
The executive acknowledged that airlines may absorb part of the increase through risk-management strategies such as fuel hedging, but warned that the impact on ticket prices is unavoidable.
“This will definitely affect ticket prices,” he said, adding that the impact is expected to be “more long-term than short-term.” Asked whether fares are already increasing, he replied: “I think they already are. Probably, yes.”
Strong Summer Demand Adds Pressure
Beyond fuel costs, strong summer travel demand is also pushing prices higher, particularly for European destinations, according to Schvartzman.
“Instead of traveling to the Far East or taking long-haul flights to Asia, many travelers are choosing to stay within Europe,” he said.
Advice for Travelers
For passengers who have already booked summer vacations in Europe, Schvartzman offered reassurance while encouraging preparedness. “I would not be worried,” he said. “Of course, it is important to stay well informed.”
According to IATA’s Regional Vice President for Europe, travelers should follow updates from airlines and airports, check flight status before heading to the airport, and be prepared for busier terminals during peak travel periods.
He also highlighted the need for extra attention from passengers arriving from outside the European Union due to the rollout of the EU’s new Entry/Exit System (EES), which replaces passport stamps with digital records and could increase processing times at border controls.
“It is important that authorities keep passengers well informed,” he said, insisting that despite capacity and border-management challenges, there is no reason to “create panic.”
Schvartzman emphasized the efforts being made by airlines, airports, air traffic management authorities, and regulators to minimize the risk of disruptions during the summer travel season.
