Global average temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels over the next five years, indicates the Annual to Decadal Global Climate Update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), released today.
The new report, conducted by the United Kingdom’s national meteorological service, the Met Office, predicts that during the 2026 to 2030 period, annual global average near-surface temperatures will range between 1.3 degrees Celsius (°C) and 1.9°C above the pre-industrial era average (1850-1900).
It also considers it “highly likely (with a 91% probability rate) that the global average near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above 1850-1900 average levels during at least one year” of the aforementioned period.
This level was also temporarily surpassed in 2024, “when the global average surface temperature was around 1.55°C above the pre-industrial baseline,” according to a WMO statement.
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The update further considers it likely (75%) that the five-year average will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial values, while indicating it is “exceptionally unlikely (less than 1%) that any single year will exceed 2°C above the 1850-1900 average.”
It also notes that “the five-year average temperature forecast in the central tropical Pacific [in the Niño 3.4 region, used to monitor the phenomenon] indicates a trend toward El Niño conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028.”
“There is an El Niño forecast for the end of 2026, which increases the likelihood of the following year, 2027, being the next record year,” states the lead author of the report, Leon Hermanson, quoted in the press release.
According to the United Nations agency, “confidence in the annual global average near-surface temperature forecasts is high, as retrospective forecasts demonstrate a high degree of accuracy.”
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Regarding the Arctic, the study, which synthesizes forecasts from 13 institutes, predicts temperatures 2.8°C above the 1991 to 2020 averages over the next five extended Northern Hemisphere winters (November to March).
“An anomaly more than three and a half times greater than the global average temperature anomaly for the same period,” which could explain the predictions of “further reductions in sea ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk” between the current year and 2035.
As for rainfall, the predicted patterns for the season between May and September 2026-2030 indicate that “wet anomalies in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia, and dry anomalies over the Amazon” are more likely.
