In recent days, the international climate scenario has once again been dominated by a well-known topic, but one with potentially amplified impacts: the possible formation of an El Niño in 2026. The hypothesis of a strong episode — sometimes informally referred to as a “super El Niño” — has mobilized meteorological centers across several continents, as climate models point to significant warming in the Equatorial Pacific.
The NOAA, the U.S. climate agency, currently estimates a probability of over 80% for the development of the phenomenon in the coming months, with projections suggesting it could persist until early 2027. However, the intensity of the event remains uncertain.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon caused by abnormal warming of the surface waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming alters global atmospheric circulation and influences patterns of rainfall, temperature, and wind in various regions of the planet.
Although it occurs in the Pacific, its effects spread globally, affecting continents such as South America, North America, Africa, Asia, and Oceania.
Under normal conditions, trade winds blow from east to west, pushing warm waters toward Indonesia and Australia, while the coast of South America maintains cooler waters.
Read more: Spanning seven decades, how China and African countries build an all-weather community with a shared future?
During an El Niño, these winds weaken. Warm waters shift toward the central and eastern Pacific, triggering a reorganization of global atmospheric circulation — resulting in significant changes in precipitation and temperature patterns.
What distinguishes a “strong” El Niño from an extreme event?
The classification of intensity is based mainly on the degree of warming of sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. When the thermal anomaly exceeds about 2°C above the historical average for several months, the phenomenon may be classified as strong or very strong.
According to climatologist Maria Assunção Dias, from the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of São Paulo (IAG-USP), this classification is based on both direct and indirect measurements:
“The term that classifies El Niño as strong or very strong is based on the temperatures of the waters in the central part of the Pacific Ocean along the Equator,” she explains.
Events such as those of 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16 are often used as references for high intensity. The term “super El Niño,” although widely used in media coverage, does not correspond to an official scientific category.
Is there already a confirmed “super El Niño”?
No. What currently exists is a strong probability of the phenomenon forming, but no consensus on its final intensity.
NOAA projections indicate:
- about an 82% probability of formation between May and July 2026
- and up to a 96% probability of persistence by late 2026 and early 2027
Some European models suggest warming scenarios above 3°C in certain simulations — values consistent with extremely intense events. However, scientists emphasize that these projections are still not conclusive.
Why is there so much uncertainty?
Forecasting ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) phenomena faces a well-known limitation called the “predictability barrier,” typical of the transitional months between seasons.
Between March and May, the ocean–atmosphere system is undergoing rapid change, which reduces the accuracy of climate models.
As Maria Assunção Dias explains: “It is a period in which both the oceans and the atmosphere are evolving rapidly, introducing a great deal of uncertainty into forecasts.”
In addition, the intensity of an El Niño depends not only on ocean warming but also on the atmospheric response — a complex coupling that is still under evaluation.
The role of climate change
El Niño is a natural phenomenon and has existed for thousands of years. However, global warming may influence its expression and amplify its impacts.
Even events with intensities similar to past occurrences now tend to produce more severe effects, due to the increase in average temperatures of the oceans and the atmosphere.
Read more: Oceans record hottest May ever
Among the potentially aggravated effects are:
- more intense heatwaves
- prolonged droughts
- more frequent wildfires
- more destructive extreme rainfall
Expected impacts worldwide
Historically, El Niño causes significant changes in regional climate patterns:
- increased rainfall in some countries
- reduced precipitation in the North and Northeast
- irregular rainfall in the Central-West and Southeast
- higher frequency of heatwaves
On a global scale, the phenomenon can affect key agricultural crops such as corn, rice, and wheat, with a direct impact on international food markets.
Economic effects: food, energy, and prices
The impacts of El Niño can extend into strategic sectors.
In agriculture, changes in rainfall patterns can disrupt planting schedules and reduce productivity, especially for crops such as soybeans and corn.
In the energy sector, reliance on hydropower makes the system vulnerable to periods of lower rainfall. In adverse scenarios, it may be necessary to resort to thermal power plants, which are more expensive, increasing electricity costs.
This set of factors can translate into higher prices for food and energy — two of the most sensitive components of inflation.
Health and associated risks
More intense heatwaves increase risks for vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and children. Air quality may also deteriorate in conditions of drought and wildfires.
In addition, variations in temperature and precipitation can influence the dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya.
Is it possible to prevent or reverse El Niño?
No.
The phenomenon is natural and cannot be stopped. Mitigation strategies focus on adaptation:
- early warning systems
- water resource management
- agricultural planning
- strengthening civil protection
- wildfire control
- preparation for extreme events
As experts emphasize, the main challenge is not preventing the phenomenon, but reducing its impacts.
When can the effects be felt?
The first signs may appear as early as the second half of 2026. However, the most intense impacts are generally expected between late 2026 and early 2027.
In the coming months, updates from NOAA, INPE, and other meteorological centers will be crucial to define how the situation evolves and to confirm whether the phenomenon will reach extreme levels.
