The African Development Bank (AfDB) projected today that Guinea-Bissau’s economy will expand by 4.9% in 2026 and accelerate further to 5.1% in 2027, driven primarily by robust activity in the country’s primary and secondary sectors. According to the bank’s latest African Economic Outlook report—released in Brazzaville during the AfDB’s annual meeting—the nation’s economic horizons remain highly favorable.
This positive trajectory follows a period of steady real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expansion, which reached 5.0% in 2025 after rebounding from a 4.1% growth rate in 2024.
For the upcoming two-year period, Guinea-Bissau’s growth is expected to be anchored by the primary sector, which is forecast to expand by 3.8% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027. Meanwhile, the secondary sector is tipped for even more aggressive acceleration, with projected growth rates of 8.3% in 2026 and 9.6% in 2027.
The AfDB highlighted that these sectoral gains will be heavily reinforced by an upscale in public investments, a rise in goods exports, and resilient domestic final consumption.
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Inflation is also predicted to remain comfortably controlled, hovering at 2.5% in 2026 before dropping to 2.2% the following year, while the fiscal deficit is expected to shrink gradually to 3.6% of GDP in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 due to rigorous budgetary management.
However, the international financial institution balanced its optimistic outlook by warning of significant downside risks that could derail this growth.
Key domestic and external threats include the ongoing conflict in the Middle East—which could push global oil prices above 100 dollars per barrel and severely disrupt critical maritime trade routes—as well as persistent local political instability, state fragility, an over-reliance on the cashew nut export market, and high exposure to climate shocks.
For the African continent as a whole, the AfDB expects broader economic growth to slow to 4.2% this year, potentially dropping to 4% if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to drag on.
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The sweeping report was presented during the annual summit of the AfDB Group, which has gathered representatives from 81 member nations, including heads of state, finance ministers, and central bank governors in the capital of the Republic of the Congo.
This year’s meetings, themed around mobilizing large-scale development financing within a fragmented global economy, are operating under highly fortified health and safety measures. Due to reinforced protocols against Ebola in Brazzaville—which sits directly across the river from the Democratic Republic of Congo—the AfDB shifted the event to a flexible hybrid format, allowing delegates to participate fully regardless of travel restrictions or logistics.
