The Chief Executive’s first trip abroad is, in fact, to Lisbon; it honours tradition, gives substance to the Lusophone project and saves face. He had repeatedly promised that this would be the case, after having been forced to cancel the agenda announced last summer. The subsequent stop in Madrid, however, places this mission within an unprecedented profile, far more difficult and complex.
As if the doubts raised by this strange new world — tense, warlike, nationalist and protectionist, and not at all admirable — were not enough, Macau still has to extend its bridge westwards, with pillars that are shaking almost everywhere. Even the direct link to Portugal, the only one with a solid historical foundation, is facing headwinds.
On this side, Macau presents itself as a mere instrument of Beijing, with neither autonomy nor ideas of its own; it is more nationalist than it needs to be, and has taken a series of political decisions, dictated by national security, that cast shadows over the Western narrative. On the other side, the new global disorder opens up a sea of doubts about Portugal’s positioning; for now, it appears stranded in the storm of Trumpist neo-fascism.
The more ambitious the internationalisation plan, the greater Macau’s potential; the more decisive it becomes for the Greater Bay Area and for integrated national development. In this case, Beijing is displaying more ambition than the tradition of regional autonomy would advise. Macau’s problem has always been its lack of strategic vision, insufficient critical mass and very limited investment capacity. One thing is the national narrative; quite another is local practice.
The question is whether Macau has the wings to fly over weak results in the Lusophone sphere and land in a strong Iberian ambition
It is not easy to stretch the rope when there are so few loose ends to grasp. Clearly, this task, being one of foreign policy, is not exactly entrusted to a solitary sailor. Sam Hou Fai is not the captain of this ship; he is certainly a senior officer, and not on just any ship.
The helm is in Beijing; an oil tanker built for global navigation. But this is a new chapter in history, and only time will tell what the epilogue may hold. In truth, it is not starting badly at all — it could be worse. After much hesitation, the prime minister and the president finally made the effort to receive Sam Hou Fai in Portugal, diluting the negative perception of the discourse gaining ground in Lisbon: that it is better to deal with the boss in Beijing than with the subordinate in Macau.
It is easy to sense that the Chinese embassy in Lisbon had to make moves to give shape to this story; just as it is easy to agree with the view that Lisbon is doing very well to value this narrative.
For all the reasons that matter to us here, but above all because of the most obvious perception: everyone wants direct relations with China, but only Portugal is anchored in the port of the MSAR. Britain might have Hong Kong, but the political tension on the other side of the Delta, and the pressure of the Anglo-Saxon empire against China’s rise, create many constraints there.
No one expects this trip to be an epic adventure, with extraordinary results; but if Sam Hou Fai is capable of stretching his legs and arms — if he can at least touch all the crucial points of this journey — he may return safely to harbour, close-hauled and at ease. Beijing merely wants to have some loose ends to pick up afterwards.
