Heavily criticized in the West, Xi Jinping’s support for Putin was more than obvious—and natural. It was not a priority, nor even preferred; however, the pressure from Washington in the Indian Ocean, in the Taiwan Strait, in Southeast Asia, in global markets… along with the advance of NATO pushed China into this position: the embrace of the “bear” to anyone who shows they can wage war against the Atlantic arc; moreover, in exchange for cheap oil and gas; and ensuring peace with the nuclear power sharing such an extensive border. China pays a high price for this: the war in Ukraine, a monster that terrifies Europe, is the greatest weapon in the hands of all those who want to block the rising power, protecting American messianism. It is primarily for this reason – not out of rule or morality – but purely out of geostrategic interest, that Beijing can only want an end to this war. It doesn’t make sense to want anything else.
The near future is clear: the eleven countries already aligned in the BRICS – 4 billion people, half of the world’s population – form the real basis for the affirmation of the Global South, an alternative vision of the world to that of the Atlantic North, which imposes the rules of globalization. This is also the most obvious platform for the deselection of dollars the global economy; and it is in this game that China moves to internationalize the renminbi. All of this is much larger than the war in Ukraine, which has double-edged effects: on one hand, it distracts the West, which is focused on areas farther away from Southeast Asia; on the other hand, it focuses the narrative on combating China’s economic expansion and political influence.
A new Treaty of Tordesillas is being drawn up, this time horizontally rather than vertically as Portugal and Spain did. However, for this path to be taken, it is urgent to end the immoral and disruptive war.
If there were no other signs, recent conversations between Trump, Xi Jinping, and Putin show how important this war is in the game of influence. A new Treaty of Tordesillas is being drawn up, this time horizontally rather than vertically as Portugal and Spain did. However, for this path to be taken, it is urgent to end the immoral and disruptive war, which is never justified and is not accepted by most of the world’s public opinion. It raises the wall that truly blocks a new world order and a new economic logic.
Of course, there are much more noble reasons to end the war; in fact, there are for leaving the Middle East at peace, or not kidnapping Maduro. But that’s not really what’s at stake; at least not in the minds of the major players. Natural resources, energy, technological dominance, access to markets, very soon water… these are the pieces that truly move on this chessboard. And looking at the map today, there are only two possible paths: a large-scale agreement focused on peace, multilateralism, and globalization, sparing populations dramatic focal points of military conflict; or large-scale suicidal wars, in which everyone loses, and has nothing to offer the people.
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, I have argued that China is missing the opportunity to assert itself globally asplayeracemaker. He chose another priority; he has already gained a lot from this, but now there is no going back. The great opportunity is to follow the path that truly illuminates his global affirmation; it is in his interest to be at peace – and good for him.
