At the “Two Sessions,” the main annual political forum in China, which brings together the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference in Beijing to set the country’s priorities, Beijing once again advocated for greater integration of Macau into national development. At the same time, it set a growth target of between 4.5% and 5% for 2026 and reinforced its bet on consumption, infrastructure, and technological innovation.
For Macau, the message that emerges from the “Two Sessions” is that of a city being called to align more closely with national priorities, but also to find new economic functions in a context of forced diversification.
“The message conveyed by the Two Sessions is not that Macau should maintain the “status quo” but rather that it should move towards a structural transformation of its economic model, oriented by ‘integration into the national strategy,’” says Lou Shenghua to PLATAFORMA.
For the academic, Beijing’s political line combines support and strategic discipline: “From a political perspective, the Central Government’s emphasis on ‘greater integration of Macau into national development’ simultaneously constitutes a clear expression of support for Macau and a requirement for greater alignment with the priorities defined by Beijing; the two dimensions are inseparable.”
[Macau]must advance towards a structural transformation of its economic model, oriented by ‘integration into the national strategy’ – Lou Shenghua, professor at MPU
Integration, prosperity, and stability
According to Lou Shenghua’s reading, integration is simultaneously a sustaining mechanism and a reconfiguration mechanism. “The ‘support’ that the Central Government provides to Macao is an impetus for development; Macao’s ‘alignment’ is the political prerequisite and logic of action necessary to fully benefit from this support and achieve its own prosperity.”
“The ultimate goal is to ensure Macau’s long-term prosperity and stability under the framework of ‘one country, two systems,’ allowing it to develop alongside the country and contribute to national rejuvenation,” he explains.
Beijing’s strategic pressure goes far beyond the political agenda, as the priorities set by the “Central Government regarding security, technological autonomy, and strategic competition with the United States” redefine Macau’s role in “five dimensions”: “security guarantee,” “technological transformation,” “regional cooperation,” “external projection,” and “economic development space.”
It is at this point that Sonny Lo sees Macau as one of China’s external platforms in specific strategic areas, including the renminbi. “The signs are that China continues to liberalize its economy; to assume, in terms of foreign policy, a multilateral and anti-hegemonic position; to value, socially, harmony and internal progress in education, poverty reduction, and social protection; to strengthen its military capabilities and modernize under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party.”
The integration of Macau into the interior of China, especially in the Greater Bay Area, is not mere rhetoric but rather a planned strategy that offers more physical space in Hengqin for the economic diversification and repositioning of Macau – Sonny Lo, political analyst
And in the external plan, “to intensify projection through the maximization of the role of Hong Kong and Macau as crucial platforms and windows for the internationalization of the renminbi and for the expansion and consolidation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative,” states to PLATAFORMA.
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Sonny Lo also insists that the approach to Hengqin and the Greater Bay Area is not mere political rhetoric: “The integration of Macau into Mainland China, especially into the Greater Bay Area, is not just empty talk, but rather a planned strategy that offers more physical space in Hengqin for Macau’s economic diversification and repositioning.”
“In this regard, Macau needs to take advantage of this opportunity to diversify its economy and redefine its position, moving away from the previous excessive dependence on what is called ‘casino capitalism’. The methods of functional integration have already been clearly referred to in the 15th Five-Year Plan, both for Macau and for Hong Kong.”
Growth target is not “low”
For economist Henry Lei, “a GDP growth target of 4.5% for 2026 is not ‘low’; I would interpret it as a ‘stable’ performance instead, which may require the Central Government to introduce stimulus measures, both on the fiscal and monetary sides, to boost private consumption, investment, and exports in order to achieve this goal.”
I assume a position of cautious optimism regarding Macau’s macroeconomic conditions in 2026 – Henry Ley, economist
Henry Lei acknowledges risks for Macau, especially if Chinese consumers’ confidence weakens. “Considering the war in the Gulf region, high inflation, the expected delay in interest rate cuts, and the volatility of financial markets, this could translate into a weakening of consumer confidence out of precaution, which could negatively affect tourism spending in Macau to some extent.”
Nevertheless, it maintains a positive note of cautious optimism: “Overall, I assume a cautiously optimistic position regarding Macau’s macroeconomic conditions in 2026.”
Regarding the sectors that may benefit from this line of integration and diversification advocated by Beijing, Henry Lei points to economic diversification in line with the national strategy. “Both the Central Government and the Macao SAR Government have been emphasizing the importance of economic diversification, with the deepening of integration with Hengqin and the Greater Bay Area being one of the paths to advance this process.”
And adds: “Among these areas, modern financial services may be the ones that can register the fastest development,” although it also expects potential in “projects related to tourism not associated with Gambling, technology, and those that contribute to strengthening Macau’s integration with the country.”
