On the great geopolitical chessboard of the 21st century, the rivalry between the United States and China is shaping what will become the new world order. But the Old Continent is far from being a mere spectator — it holds in its hands the power to tip the balance to one side. Europe’s true asset lies in its ability to remain relevant by balancing between the two superpowers, forcing both to regard it as an indispensable player.
In last week’s editorial, I wrote about the impact of a world order dominated by a single superpower and the risks such a scenario poses to global stability; how a unipolar world, whether led by the United States or China, pushes the other to the extreme. Even in a scenario where one of the blocs emerges relatively unscathed, the margin for manoeuvre of the defeated — and even of the allies — disappears, leaving them powerless to counter the superpower. In this context, Europe cannot allow itself to be relegated to a secondary role of destabiliser, under penalty of becoming irrelevant in decisions that directly affect its future — as it recently experienced in Ukraine.
By nature and by history, the Old Continent values multilateral diplomacy and stability. For decades, it has established itself as a bastion of international law, economic cooperation, and political integration. However, the rise of China and the increasingly protectionist and nationalist response from the United States create a strategic dilemma: to fully align with Washington, reinforcing transatlantic ties, or to strengthen relations with Beijing, seizing the opportunities of a partnership with the world’s second-largest economy.
Neither option is without cost. An unconditional alliance with the United States results in distancing from the Chinese market, affecting European competitiveness. On the other hand, drawing too close to Beijing weakens Europe’s historical and security ties with Washington, putting the cohesion of the European Union itself at risk. Thus, the best strategy for Europe is to turn its geopolitical position into a bargaining tool, ensuring that both sides recognise it for what it is — an indispensable partner, regardless of its choices.
Europe has a window of opportunity to reaffirm itself as an essential pillar in this balance of power. But it must become a force that does not bend to polarisation — it must use it to its advantage. The success of this strategy will define not only Europe’s relevance, but also the very course of the 21st century.
“The United States can hurt China’s GDP by between 15% and 51%, but only with the support of its allies,” says Portugal’s former Minister for the Economy, António Costa da Silva, in an interview featured on pages 5 to 7 of this edition. But without Europe, “they can only damage China’s GDP by 5% to 7%.” Conversely, “China can harm 4% to 5% of the US GDP — tit for tat.” The great challenge, not only for Europe’s future but also for the world, lies in the ability not to choose one side — but rather, both.
*Executive Director of PLATAFORMA.
