Volodymyr Zelensky and Xi Jinping, presidents of Ukraine and China, respectively, spoke by phone last week. The main (and possibly) subject discussed was the war, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Chinese leader assured his counterpart that he stands for peace, despite his close relationship with Vladimir Putin, the man who ordered this war, which imploded in 2022. Xi Jinping could now play a decisive role in the outcome of this conflict, but his actions could go much further, namely repairing China’s image around the world.
Until now, Xi Jinping has never taken sides in this war, nor has he even dubbed it a war. He always mentioned the need for peace, it is true, but he never criticized, for example, the options that Vladimir Putin took in the last year. All of this has led to criticism from the world’s leading nations, almost all of them from Ukraine’s side. Now, however, everything could change.
“It is a conversation that is too late. Xi Jinping should have taken this position many months ago, so much could have been avoided. China knows this, it has a very important role in world politics, in world decisions, at all levels. It is late, yes, but it is also true that it continues to be, probably, the nation that could most easily lead to an understanding between Ukraine and Russia”, begins by revealing to PLATAFORMA Carlos Rodrigues, a Portuguese specialist in Political Science.
Last March, Xi Jinping was on an official visit to Russia, where he met with Vladimir Putin. Among many signed agreements, the President of China presented Putin with a peace plan for the war in Ukraine that has 12 points and suggests negotiations for peace and respect for national sovereignty, although it does not contain specific proposals.
This plan, says Carlos Rodrigues, was the Chinese “kick off”. “China did not want to take sides early in the war and although it has not done so yet, Xi Jinping also knows that the war is damaging his country economically. They are different economies, but China is also affected, especially as it was the country that was closed the longest during the Covid-19 pandemic. In that sense, and as the war dragged on, the Chinese leader, and his entire Communist Party structure, realized that he had to take action. No one is so silly as to think that Xi Jinping went to Russia just to sign trade deals or eventually to side with Vladimir Putin. Xi Jinping went to Russia to demonstrate to his Russian counterpart that the war has been going on for a long time, hence his peace plan”, stresses the expert, giving his vision of this visit.
“Certainly he explained to Putin everything that could happen from now on, the economic sanctions will get worse, they will even harm his allied countries or those that never took sides, like China, the economies will get weaker, etc. Xi Jinping hardly gave Putin an ultimatum, nothing like that, but Putin probably found out that China’s position could one day change and that would be tragic for the Russian economy”, says Carlos Rodrigues.
And what to expect now from this phone call between Xi Jinping and Volodymyr Zelensky? “I believe that in the short term there will be no major developments. But it is obvious that the war will only end with dialogue and China will be decisive here, perhaps the only nation capable of stopping the war, intermediating, it can be with other countries, of course, but China will always have to be involved. Even because, at this moment, he also wants to be. He knows that the image of China around the world is not the most positive and if he manages to end the war, everything could change”, he says, comparing the role of China and that of the USA.
“The US, even because of historical politics, would always side with Ukraine. The image we have of the US is an allied nation that supplies weapons, that continues to instigate confrontation. China could do the opposite, appeal only to dialogue, as it will never supply Russia or Ukraine with arms. If it manages to wage war with dialogue, it will win points for the US in the world of geopolitics, I have no doubt. It is a powerful weapon that China has in its hands, it remains to be seen whether it will use it, whether it will continue to insist on both Russia and Ukraine”, says Carlos Rodrigues, before concluding with his vision of how the war could end via dialogue.
“China presented a peace plan to the two countries, but it cannot be alone in this, for the war to end sooner. There are political prides, there always have been, but China should call other countries to the negotiating table. The idea that Lula da Silva came up with is a very good one, the creation of a peace group, of countries. I think that would be ideal.”
