The Brookings Institution considers that the war between the US, Israel, and Iran has strategically benefited China by exposing the limits of American power, deepening divisions between Washington and its allies, and opening space for Beijing to strengthen its global influence.
In an article published today by the American think tank, the director of the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings, Ryan Hass, argues that the conflict confirmed Beijing’s assessment that it does not need to directly confront Washington to elevate its position in the international order.
“The United States and Israel fought Iran, and China won,” summarizes Hass, a former director for China on the White House National Security Council during the presidency of Barack Obama.
According to the analyst, many proponents of American military intervention believed that a defeat of Iran would weaken China’s network of partners and deprive Beijing of access to discounted Iranian oil, which represented about 13% of Chinese crude imports.
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However, Hass maintains that recent events have demonstrated the opposite. The researcher cites historian Robert Kagan to argue that Tehran could emerge from the conflict more influential due to its ability to affect the world economy through its control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the global energy trade passes.
Beijing simultaneously observes the United States wearing itself down on a new conflict front, while it keeps its resources concentrated on what it considers the main geopolitical dispute of the century: technological leadership.
“For China, hegemony in the Persian Gulf would involve more costs than benefits,” writes Hass, arguing that Beijing prefers to maintain relations with all countries in the region without assuming responsibilities for regional security. The expert acknowledges that the war also carries risks for China, including disruptions to maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz, higher energy prices, and an eventual global economic slowdown.
Even so, he considers that the strategic balance favors Beijing. The analysis highlights that China is already helping United States allies, such as Thailand and the Philippines, to meet shortages of aviation fuel and other energy imports, filling a role that was traditionally played by Washington.
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In the medium term, Beijing could also benefit from the growing demand for renewable energy technologies, a sector in which it holds dominant positions in areas such as solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and batteries.
Hass also considers that the war has aggravated tensions between the United States and its allies in Europe and the Middle East, due to differences over the legitimacy, conduct, and consequences of the conflict. “Any weakening of alliance cohesion reduces the possibility of a coordinated response to Chinese advances,” he writes. The researcher further predicts that Beijing will seek to politically exploit American difficulties to achieve its strategic goals.
Asian partners may now doubt the willingness of the United States to defend Taiwan if Washington struggles to handle “a second-tier regional military power” like Iran. The analyst considers it unlikely, however, that China will alter its approach toward Taiwan due to the war.
“Beijing’s goal is to lead the population of Taiwan to accept that the best guarantee of security and prosperity lies in integration with mainland China,” he argues. The expert recalls, however, that the country faces significant internal challenges, including high youth unemployment, weak domestic demand, and rising debt levels. “Global leadership will continue to be contested,” he emphasizes.
