A possible invasion of Taiwan by China in 2026 and the convictions of high-ranking Chinese officials detained this year are driving tens of millions of euros in bets on the world’s largest prediction markets.
The possibility of an invasion of Taiwan by the People’s Liberation Army this year has already moved nearly 26 million US dollars (22.1 million euros) on the Polymarket platform, the sector’s leader, even though only 7% of bettors currently see it as a likely event this year.
There are also bets regarding the possibility of US President Donald Trump visiting China by June 30, a wager that has already moved approximately 31 million US dollars (26.4 million euros). Even the duration of the handshake between the two leaders during that meeting has become a target for bettors, with the majority predicting a length of 15 seconds.
Polymarket and Kalshi are the two largest decentralized prediction markets in the world, allowing bets on real-world events in politics, economy, culture, or sports. The volume of bets on prediction markets related to China currently reaches nearly 70 million US dollars (59.5 million euros), according to data analyzed today by Lusa. Betting on prediction markets is not permitted in mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, or even Macau, the gambling capital of the world.
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Currently, the total volume of bets on events related to China reaches 67.3 million US dollars (57.2 million euros) on Polymarket and 1.1 million US dollars (937,200 euros) on Kalshi. Most China-linked bets on both platforms are related to the country’s political or economic forecasts. The Kalshi platform currently has active bets on possible US tariffs on China or whether a Chinese artificial intelligence model will be the most used this year.
It is also possible to see bets on forecasts for Chinese GDP growth this year, a wager that has already gathered 493,000 US dollars (420,119 euros), with 77% of bettors predicting growth between 4 and 5 percent.
A bet that has already moved 113,000 US dollars (96,292 euros) focuses on the possibility of General Zhang Youxia, detained this year, being sentenced by 2027. Zhang, vice-chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, was detained for investigation on January 24, 2026, under charges of serious disciplinary violations, corruption, and leaking military secrets.
Even the possibility of the Chinese President getting a divorce or ordering the detention of other high-ranking party officials has been the subject of bets on the platforms. About 81,000 dollars (69,012 euros) have already been put into play guaranteeing that Xi Jinping’s marriage to Peng Liyuan lasts at least until 2027.
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The largest bet related to Hong Kong is a forecast on the possible highest temperature recorded today, with nearly 221,000 US dollars (188,292 euros) moved.
In 2025, Kalshi and Polymarket represented 97.5% of the global prediction market, with trading volumes reaching 238 billion (202.3 billion euros) and 220 billion (187 billion euros), respectively. Polymarket gained notoriety after predicting Donald Trump’s election in the 2024 elections, contrary to most public polls that pointed to an advantage for Kamala Harris.
A recent controversial case involved an anonymous bet that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would soon leave office, made just hours before President Donald Trump announced the surprise night operation that led to Maduro’s capture. A US Army sergeant, identified as Gannon Ken Van Dyke, was later arrested in the US for using classified information to place that bet, through which he won 400,000 US dollars (340,000 euros).
