American voters go to the polls on November 5th to elect their next President. When these elections were still a rematch of 2020 – between Biden and Trump – it was safe to bet on the Republicans’ return to power. However, Biden’s withdrawal and consequent choice of his vice president, Kamala Harris, began to mix up the accounts since July. Now the question arises: will Kamala be the first female president? Or will we have a new Trump term?
Looking at what the most recent national polls are, Kamala Harris is ahead of Trump by one point. However, both in 2016 and 2020, support for Trump was underestimated. And the truth is that after the presidential debate between the two candidates, in August, in which Kamala won, Trump managed to recover. At this moment, less than a week before the elections, Trump is gaining ground, and no one is able to identify a winner based on the percentage that separates them. Trump’s last rally was in New York, and there is a consensus in the American media that such a turnout was not expected in a typically Democratic state.
National polls are not reliable, taking into account the North American electoral system. Although Kamala is ahead, those who truly decide are the ‘swing states’ – states that sometimes vote for Democrats, sometimes vote for Republicans. And in this election there are seven, and there haven’t been that many since 2008, when Barack Obama was elected. Those are Pennsylvania (with 19 votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). Among the seven, Trump is ahead of Kamala in four. And, despite it being by just one or two points, polls point to a Republican victory in the three that represent the most votes: Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.
The polls do not point to a clear winner, but they reflect a clearly divided nation. The candidates’ communication – especially Trump – shows no desire to attract voters from the other political camp at this point in the championship. There are few shared values between campaigns; It is more what separates them than what unites them. The cultural and identity fracture in the United States grows with incendiary speeches, and everything indicates that after the elections this separation will be consolidated. Looking at what the candidates’ foreign policies are, there will be a new world on November 5th. At a national level, this balance of completely different ideals, where only one will prevail, will not bring anything good.
*Executive Director of PLATAFORMA
