Chinese customs have reported new records in trade between China and Portuguese-speaking Countries; the best results ever in the first eight months of the year. There are several obvious conclusions: without Brazil, Lusophony is what it is; China is recovering the numbers lost during the zero-COVID policy; and Macau is part of a narrative to which it continues not to contribute with relevant results. They will never be central to the overall cake, but they must at least contribute to their own economic diversification.
Between January and August, Lusophone exports to China increased by 4.9 percent, to 97.6 billion dollars. In the opposite direction, China exported goods worth 58.5 billion dollars, an annual increase of 19.7 percent; also a record for the same period of the year. Brazil leads in both cases: it exported 81.5 billion dollars and imported 49.5 billion; followed by Portugal, which exported 2.09 billion dollars and imported 4.19 billion.
Beijing’s relationship with blocs such as the BRICS or Lusophony is gaining strength in a strategy that seeks to relaunch the Chinese economy through international relations. But it’s not enough. Europe, the world’s largest consumer market, the rest of Latin America – not to mention the United States – cannot be ignored by those seeking to escape labor-intensive production with cheap labor, and an artificially supported GDP based on construction – the genesis of the real estate bubble. The big question mark remains India, which resists joining the anti-American bloc and maintains ambiguous relations with China and Russia.
In an increasingly divided world, in the face of conflict positions in theaters of war such as Ukraine and Palestine, Beijing is strengthening contacts in all capitals, trying to reopen markets and multiply alliances that leverage exports and attract investment. Visa exemptions for China, the new bet on the “Belt and Road” strategy, and the attraction of capital, are just the most obvious signs that everything has changed after COVID. Not because the dominant ideology is losing ground, but because economic reality demands it. After the focus on national security; from the times when ideology was more important than the economy; China enters a new era: it does not lose focus on regime security, nor on discourses against foreign interference; however, control is now an instrument to open China to new markets and investment flows. The mantra is now a secure economy.
In this context, the outcome of the US election, already on November 5th, is crucial. Donald Trump is unpredictable; but, if he wins, his increasingly radical position will have contradictory global consequences. First, it will hardly sponsor NATO and the war in Ukraine, which benefits Russia and China; then, it will be even more radical in supporting Israel; which harms Sino-Arab interests; finally, it will be commercially protectionist, which harms China directly, but benefits Beijing’s diplomacy in Europe, as Trump is persona non grata in most liberal democracies.
With more or less openness, in China and the West, Macau must seize the opportunity created by China’s opening strategy. With Lusophony being its main target, the new cycle of Sam Hou Fai must encourage investors and the local Lusophone community to assert themselves – definitively – in this context. If they don’t, sooner rather than later, a critical continental mass will land here – bilingual or not – capable of doing so. It is not an option; it is an opportunity; or it will end up becoming a problem.
*Director-General of PLATAFORMA
