Sam Ho Fai surprised; he was well hidden in the Court of Final Appeal – and no one saw him arrive. Those who know him say that he had been preparing for this transition for a long time, leaving the local oligarchy behind. After Edmund Ho, Chui Sai On, and Ho Iat Seng (supported by the Ma), Beijing takes over the one who, once arrested Ho Chio Meng, was after all the top of the pyramid in a group from the Continent – who studied in Portugal – and embodies the legalist alternative, 25 years later. It is no longer surprising that the candidacy was formalized with 383 signatures from the 400 members of the Electoral College. In less than two weeks of contacts, he crushes competition that, in fact, never existed. The path forward is not so obvious – it is a lot of work. Ten tracks for the Chief Executive to follow:
1 – Affirmation: it deserves a first blank check. His political thinking is not known, nor is his negotiating capacity in the Greater Bay Area and in Beijing. It has an environment that supports change; and it may well be the air you want to breathe. But it comes with the burden of enormous – and demanding – expectations. His name is inscribed in History; It remains to be seen whether he will get the golden letter.
2 – Integration: Greater Bahia is central and inevitable. Macau never noticed, and probably rejects, the investment it preferred to see concentrated here. But the new cycle cannot escape it. It remains to be seen who Sam Hou Fai takes on that boat; how it convinces businesspeople and citizens in general to bet on the unknown next door.
3 – Platform: it has been written for decades; there is a Forum in Macau that brings together China and all Portuguese-speaking countries; but there are no results. The local oligarchy says yes to an instruction from Beijing that, in fact, it never wanted – or did not know how – to comply with; Portuguese-speaking politicians and businesspeople arrive with a lot of speech and little business. The topic is essential for economic diversification, international affirmation, value proposition in Greater Bahia, and the Portuguese presence itself.
4 – Reform: changing the Public Administration is the great myth that permeates all Chief Executives. Edmund Ho promised; Chui Sai On too; it was Ho Iat Seng’s priority… but it was never even discussed; there are no clues or script. Sam Ho Fai faces a heavy legacy, in an Administration accustomed to blindly following orders; or doing nothing when you don’t have them. A real seven-headed beast.
5 – Diversification: reducing gaming contracts to ten years casts doubt on what Beijing will do next: walking on two legs, promoting other sectors along with gaming; or turn it off to impose another profile on the Gross Domestic Product. The key to success lies in political negotiation and support for local businesspeople.
6 – Investment: stopped. After COVID, those who invested in real estate, across the border; lost value and gained debt. Here, many confess that Macau does not attract them, China is in crisis, and Lusofonia is far away. Foreign investment faces two central roadblocks: residency restrictions keep entrepreneurs and critical mass away; and Grande Bahia scares those who don’t take risks without a political network. It is perhaps Sam Hou Fai’s biggest challenge.
7 – Networking: Ho Iat Seng closed the doors of the Palace, refused to share decisions and listen to local networks of influence. This caused an emotional cataclysm, lost support and pushed the elites into direct contact with the Central Power. The people want affection; capital wants information and a political network.
8 – Communication: Nothing is known, nothing is said, nothing is explained. Never before has power been so alienated from public – and published – opinion. The Government’s communications offices were simply inconsequential during the previous term. With serious consequences for the image of the Government – and of the Macao SAR itself. Sam Ho Fai has to do better – worse is difficult.
9 – National: Chinese provincial leaders never understood how it was possible for Macau to have so many problems, with so much money flying around. Local politicians don’t get much national respect, and that’s one of Sam Ho Fai’s missions. Beijing will have difficulty pushing tourists and investment here if this respect is not earned.
10 – International: the political and economic blockade of China affects Macau and Hong Kong, whose added value is the bridge to the west. The difficulty lies in making patriotic practice – without which one is not head of the Executive – compatible with a worn-out international face.
*General Director of PLATAFORMA
