Professor and researcher at IEP – Católica and associate researcher at ECFR, Lívia Franco explains to DN how Putin “doesn’t come out well” from the latest events and says he does not believe that these will determine the end of the Wagner Group.
Was this Wagner Group rebellion the biggest challenge to Vladimir Putin in 23 years in power?
It’s still too early to tell. Much remains to be explained, namely whether or not there was a staging component in the events. In any case, Prigozhin’s accusatory rhetoric was always directed at the political and military elites, and never against the regime and even less at Putin. It turns out that in a system like the Russian one, based on concealment, lies and fake news, telling the truth about the limits and inefficiency of Russian military action in Ukraine can be extremely disruptive and lead to important political changes. But it is certain that in his image of a strong man, Putin does not come out of these events well.
What motivations could Yevgeny Prigozhin have had to challenge the Kremlin?
Accepting that the uprising was genuine, the main reason was the growing frustration with the lack of support that the Ministry of Defense gave to the Wagner Group, especially in the insufficient and deliberate supply of ammunition. After all, they were the forces that most stood out on the battlefield. It can also be explained by an element of rivalry between Putin’s main supporters, in a logic of balance of power and influence that is always evolving in authoritarian regimes, such as the Russian one. An evident lack of reaction from the Russian regular forces in halting the march led by Prigozhin also points to demoralization and discontent in the ranks of the country’s Armed Forces. We are sure that the leader of the Wagner Group is a popular man in certain sectors of Russian society.
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