In a report published this Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) analyzes the first consequences of the war in Ukraine for Europe due to Russia’s strong energy dependence, which in 2020 supplied almost 30% of the gas consumed in Europe, plus more than 20% of oil and 12% of coal.
Given a base index of 100 points, at the beginning of 2016, prices in France and Germany are already 10 times higher (1000 points).
The escalation will accelerate in winter, precisely when there are fears of supply problems or a new rise in gas prices, if it is confirmed that Russia will close the “taps” to Europe.
The study authors predict that prices in France will triple by the end of the year (to 3000 points), while in Germany they could almost double to around 1750 points.
For the year 2023, forecasts point to a drop in both countries, in the first part of the year, rising again in the second half of the year and ending with around 1500 points, that is, 15 times the price they had at the beginning of 2016.
As for the UK, the report predicts it will go from the current 500 to around 1250 in the fourth quarter, before dropping below the 750 threshold in the second half of next year.
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