Recession in Angola will be “more severe” than the Government’s forecast
The study office of Banco Fomento Angola estimates that the negative growth that Angola is expected to face this year is “more severe” than the estimate of 1.4% of the International Monetary Fund and 1.2% of the Government.
In a note sent to customers about the evolution of the Angolan economy, BFA writes that “the economy should continue to fall this year, due to the effects of the drastic reduction in oil revenues, to about half compared to 2019”.
Thus, “the IMF points to a recession of 1.4% and the expectation is for a more severe scenario”, say the analysts.
Lusa questioned the study office about the concrete value for the forecast of recession for this year, but there is still no concrete forecast about the negative growth estimate for Angola in 2020.
Angola’s economy registered a fourth consecutive year of contraction last year, registering a recession of 0.9% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to preliminary data from the National Statistics Institute (INE).
“The GDP of the fourth quarter of 2019, in year-on-year terms, varied / decreased 0.8% in relation to the same quarter of 2018, and the preliminary annual GDP, resulting from the four quarters of 2019, varied / decreased 0.9 in relation to the year 2018 “, read in the note available on the INE website.
According to data released by the Angolan statistical entity, the country thus registered the fourth consecutive year of recession, after having broken since 2016, and is expected to register a contraction again this year, with the Government estimating a decrease of 1.2 % and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) foreseeing a drop of 1.4%.
In the data presented, the INE also lowers the negative growth of 2018, which changes to -2% instead of the -1.2% it previously estimated, which means that between 2015 and 2019 Angola’s GDP has down 5.5%.