Hong Kong’s meteorological agency has predicted that the El Niño climate phenomenon could drive the Chinese region to record-breaking maximum temperatures this year and in 2027.
In a statement released on Monday, the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed that an El Niño event is currently forming and is expected to continue affecting the region’s climate until early next year.
El Niño is characterized by an abnormal rise in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It typically occurs every two to seven years and generally lasts between nine and 12 months.
The Observatory projects that the current phenomenon will reach a “strong to super strong” level of intensity, noting that a powerful El Niño generally increases the likelihood of abnormally high temperatures across different parts of the world.
Read more about this topic: China faces higher risk of super typhoons due to El Niño (with video)
“Under the combined influence of global warming, the average temperature in Hong Kong is expected to be significantly higher this year and next, and record-breaking high temperatures may occur,” the agency warned.
The last El Niño event, which spanned 2023 and 2024, made those two years the hottest ever recorded globally. This cyclical phenomenon triggers a domino effect on global weather patterns that persists for several months.
In Hong Kong, the last three El Niño cycles—occurring in 1997–1998, 2014–2016, and 2023–2024—simultaneously drove the former British colony to break historical heat records, the Observatory recalled.
By late May, the agency had already signaled a high probability that 2026 would rank among the top ten warmest years on record for Hong Kong.
Read more about this topic: El Niño: what is the phenomenon that could intensify heat, extreme rainfall, and affect life in 2026
The acting assistant director of the Observatory, Choy Chun-wing, also warned that El Niño elevates the risk of tropical storms passing through southern China transforming into super typhoons.
The Observatory estimated that the region will be affected by four to seven tropical storms this season, a lower frequency compared to the 14 direct threats recorded in 2025. Typhoons are a recurring phenomenon in Southeast Asia, as warm waters in the Pacific Ocean fuel the formation of cyclones, with southern China experiencing dozens of these tropical storms annually.
In late March, the Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau of neighboring Macau did not rule out the possibility of the city being hit by super typhoons similar to Typhoon Ragasa, which was the most powerful storm recorded globally in 2025.
According to a study published in 2024, typhoons in the region are forming closer to the coast than in the past, intensifying more rapidly, and remaining over land for longer periods as a direct consequence of climate change. Scientists maintain that global climate change is causing more frequent and intense extreme weather events across the globe.
