The Hong Kong weather agency has warned that the El Niño phenomenon increases the risk of southern China being hit by super typhoons this year.
The acting assistant director of the Hong Kong Observatory, Choy Chun-wing, predicted that the region is expected to be affected by between four and seven tropical storms in 2026, fewer than the 14 recorded last year.
However, during a press conference on Thursday, Choy warned that El Niño increases the probability of these tropical storms intensifying into super typhoons.
El Niño is characterized by a rise in surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts approximately nine to twelve months.
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The last El Niño event, spanning 2023 and 2024, made those two years the hottest ever recorded. This cyclical phenomenon has a domino effect on global weather for several months.
According to local media, Choy also recalled that during years affected by El Niño, the typhoon season in southern China generally starts late and ends early.
Both the Hong Kong Observatory and the weather agency of the neighboring region of Macau predict that the typhoon season will begin in June, or even later, and end in October or earlier.
Typhoons are recurring phenomena in Southeast Asia, where the warm waters of the Pacific Ocean favor the formation of cyclones, and southern China is hit by dozens of these tropical storms every year.
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At the end of March, Macau’s Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG) did not rule out the possibility of Macau being affected by super typhoons similar to Ragasa, the most powerful storm recorded on the planet in 2025.
At the start of the 2025 rainy season, the SMG had made a similar prediction, anticipating five to eight tropical storms.
However, Macau ultimately recorded 14 typhoons, surpassing the previous historical record of 12 set in 1974, making 2025 the year with the highest number of tropical storms since systematic record-keeping began in 1968. According to a study published in 2024, typhoons in the region are forming closer to the coast than in the past, intensifying more rapidly, and staying longer over land as a consequence of climate change.
According to scientists, climate change is causing more frequent and intense extreme weather events across the globe. Also on Thursday, Choy Chun-wing emphasized that “under the combined effect of global warming and a stronger El Niño, Hong Kong is expected to record above-average temperatures this year and next.”
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“There is a high probability of it ranking among the top 10 hottest years on record,” the acting assistant director of the Observatory added. Choy also stated that rainfall is expected to be higher than normal.
