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Macau’s economy under pressure

The early departure of Tai Kin Ip leaves a demanding agenda in the Economy and Finance portfolio, in a context where “the integration of Macau with Hengqin and the Greater Bay Area (GBA) has not yet produced tangible results for the general population,” says economist Henry Lei, while Sales Marques warns that “consumption festivals” and other demand-side support measures are merely “palliative,” pointing to the challenges that now fall to the next secretary

Fernando M. Ferreira, Ng Chan Tou

The leadership change in the Economy and Finance area comes at a time when Macau’s key economic challenges remain unchanged, placing the focus on the profile and execution capacity of the next secretary.

From both a technical and political perspective, University of Macau public administration professor Kin Sun Chan notes that the office holder must possess not only knowledge, but also the ability to apply it: “The secretary must not only have specialised knowledge in macroeconomic management and public finances, but, more importantly, the ability to translate that knowledge into effective governance tools.”

This requirement also includes coordination skills: “this implies being an exceptional communicator, capable of establishing an open dialogue with Macau’s business and labour sectors, as well as with professional associations and youth organisations,” the academic adds.

Kuai Peng Ip, rector of the Institute for Research on Portuguese-Speaking Countries at the City University of Macau, adds a dimension of political orientation and pragmatism to the role. The next secretary should have “a solid background in economics and finance, a clear political stance, and a pragmatic commitment to reform,” and it is essential to “align with the policies of the Central Government to secure national support.”

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The academic also stresses the need to avoid superficial results, arguing that the secretary should “avoid the pursuit of short-term indicators and superficial outcomes,” instead prioritising “industrial optimisation, fiscal stability, and tangible benefits for residents.”

Execution emerges as one of the main weaknesses of the current model. Kin Sun Chan identifies a structural gap: “there is still room for improvement in the continuous monitoring of policies and in systematic evaluation.” He adds: “the Statistics and Census Service currently provides systematic reports only on part of the emerging industries, lacking comprehensive and dynamic monitoring of the effectiveness of the development of the ‘Four New’ industries.”

In this context, the new secretary will need to strengthen institutional capacity. “He must have strong policy coordination and execution capabilities” and “establish effective evaluation and feedback mechanisms,” Kin Sun Chan argues, stressing that “only through more refined governance will it be possible to turn broad strategic directions into concrete results.”

On the economic front, structural constraints remain, particularly limited diversification and the fragility of the business fabric. Henry Lei advocates a shift in public policy instruments: “It is also necessary to move from a conventional subsidy-based model to one based on capital participation, with a milestone-based approach that can also create incentives to attract external private capital.”

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Regional integration remains central, but with concrete challenges. The economist stresses that “the new secretary must play a guarantor role, ensuring Macau’s interests, including the participation of local companies, professionals, and financial institutions in projects in Hengqin and the Greater Bay Area with strong potential.”

At the same time, the results of that integration remain limited. Henry Lei notes that “the integration of Macau with Hengqin and the Greater Bay Area has not yet produced tangible results for the general population, which not only falls short of society’s expectations but has also generated public doubts.”

Internal focus

Domestically, the community economy remains under pressure. Sales Marques points out that “the community economy remains depressed,” in a context where “consumption festivals” have a limited effect, being “a very limited measure in both time and results.”

The economist is clear about the scope of such policies: “Any economist will say that these quantitative demand stimuli are palliative,” arguing that many SMEs “need support to be restructured, modernised, or both.”

Recovery also depends on external dynamics. “Only with a significant increase in demand driven by tourism can the community economy be revived,” says Sales Marques, pointing to changes in consumer profiles and market demands.

Another issue identified concerns Macau’s international projection. Sales Marques considers that “there is a fairly significant deficit in Macau’s direct presence in its main markets” and stresses that “the importance of this component should not be underestimated.”

Regarding the recent legacy, Henry Lei acknowledges positive initiatives, though with still limited impact: “The MSAR Government has recently launched several new projects, such as the Macau Science and Technology Industrial Park and the Government Guidance Fund,” describing them as “essential and relevant.”

Even so, he notes that “despite the robust recovery of the tourism and gaming sectors, SMEs and the non-gaming sector continue to face a range of internal and external challenges.”

The next secretary will take office with a defined agenda, but under increased pressure in execution, regional coordination, and the delivery of concrete results in economic diversification.

The profile required

“Strong coordination and execution capabilities” – Kin Sun Chan
“Exceptional communicator” – Kin Sun Chan
“Solid background in economics and finance” – Kuai Peng Ip
“Clear political stance” – Kuai Peng Ip
“Fully recognised by the Central Government” – Henry Lei
“Guarantor role” – Henry Lei
“Skilled negotiator” – Sales Marques

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