Extreme heat is fundamentally redefining agriculture in Brazil, causing significant impacts on production and food security, according to a report released today by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
The document, prepared in conjunction with the World Meteorological Organization, asserts that extreme heat is becoming one of the most severe threats to agriculture globally, simultaneously affecting crops, livestock, fisheries, and forests. The report includes a specific study on the 2024 and 2025 heatwaves in Brazil, highlighting the combined effects of high temperatures and drought on vast agricultural areas.
These phenomena are linked to climate change, which was amplified by a strong El Niño, and are expected to become more frequent and intense in the coming decades.
The FAO emphasizes that extreme heat acts as a risk multiplier, aggravating existing impacts on food production through crop failures and reduced national output, which in turn puts pressure on food inflation. Regarding soy, Brazil’s primary export, the FAO observed that production was hit hard, as temperatures exceeded the critical limit of 30°C on more than 60% of the days during the growing season.
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Due to this relentless thermal stress, the official estimate for the Brazilian soy harvest was reduced by nearly 10%, resulting in the loss of millions of tons of food. This heat also facilitated the proliferation of pests, such as whiteflies and fungi, which attacked potato, bean, and sugarcane plantations in various production areas in the state of São Paulo.
The livestock sector was also widely affected, with negative effects registered across almost the entire Brazilian territory. Dairy farming suffered a significant impact on cow health and productivity, especially in the Southeast. The report adds that cows under strong heat stress produce less milk and may produce offspring with reduced performance, which represents an irreversible economic loss for rural producers.
Furthermore, 2024 saw the highest number of fire outbreaks and burned areas since 2010, with the most evident peaks in the Center-West, impacting the Amazon, Pantanal, and Cerrado biomes. Forest fires devastated an area equivalent to the size of Italy and caused severe atmospheric pollution from microparticles.
The study highlights that, without human-induced climate change, devastating phenomena like the 2024 fires in the Pantanal would have been 10,000% less frequent in Brazilian territory. Regarding the Amazon, the FAO warns that the combination of extreme heat, drought, and environmental degradation could reduce the forest’s resilience, increase fire risk, and affect the forest’s role in global climate regulation.
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The report estimates that approximately 7% of the forest is destroyed for each degree of global temperature increase above the 1.5°C threshold. If forest growth becomes negative, the region faces the critical risk of transitioning to a net source of emissions, thereby accelerating global warming.
The report calls attention to a feedback mechanism generated by the loss of forest cover and exposed soil, which causes local regional heating. According to the FAO, in areas of the Amazon, this feedback cycle with exposed soils can increase local warming effects by more than 300%, further aggravating the climatic impact.
