The International Monetary Fund has raised its economic growth forecast for Macau to 3% in 2026, even as it warns of a broader global slowdown.
In a report released on Tuesday, the IMF said the improved outlook for Macau comes as it adopts a more cautious global stance, lowering its world growth projection for 2026 to 3.1%. The revision reflects concerns that the conflict involving Iran could disrupt energy markets and drive up prices.
The fund warned that rising geopolitical risks are increasing uncertainty, particularly through the potential for higher oil and commodity prices.
The updated forecast points to a steady recovery in Macau’s economy, with consumer prices expected to rise by 1.8%, suggesting a relatively moderate inflation environment.
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According to the report, Macau’s nominal GDP is projected to reach $54.23 billion in 2026, while GDP per capita is expected to stand at $76,450. In purchasing power parity terms, GDP per capita is forecast at $140,420.
IMF analysts cautioned that the territory remains vulnerable to fluctuations in global demand and financial conditions. External factors — particularly energy prices and geopolitical tensions — are likely to continue influencing the pace of recovery.
The IMF also noted that China’s economy has shown resilience, although unevenly. By the end of 2025, China’s sequential growth accelerated to 6.1%, driven mainly by exports, which offset weak domestic demand, especially in the real estate sector.
This imbalance between strong external demand and fragile domestic consumption remains a key structural challenge.
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The report highlighted that China has benefited from strong global demand for semiconductors and artificial intelligence-related equipment, making it a major driver of technological expansion in Asia.
Chinese exports have been redirected from the United States to other Asian economies and, temporarily, to Europe, enabling the country to post a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion in 2025, equivalent to about 6% of GDP.
This shift reflects a global race to secure technological goods and diversify supply chains amid geopolitical uncertainty.
“Robust growth in technology exports offset the slowdown in other categories,” the report noted, highlighting how Asian economies have benefited from rising demand for semiconductors and AI-related equipment.
