Electricity production in Mozambique fell 25% in 2025, driven by reduced water levels at the Cahora Bassa hydroelectric plant (HCB), following the “worst rainfall” in 43 years, according to government data.
In a 2025 budget execution report, the government states that total electricity production stood at 14,408,381 megawatt-hours (MWh) — 76.7% of the annual target and 25.4% below 2024 levels.
“The low production was largely due to the weak performance of hydroelectric plants, which in the period under review recorded an execution rate of 72.3% and a decline of 30.7% compared to the same period in 2024,” the report reads.
It adds that Mozambique “is the largest producer of hydroelectricity in southern Africa” and that “almost all of its production comes from the HCB,” with 2,075 megawatts (MW), “complemented by other small dams managed” by Electricidade de Moçambique. In 2025, hydroelectric plants generated 11,207,934 MWh — down 30.7% from 2024 — a performance explained “largely by the effects of the El Niño phenomenon affecting the HCB plant since 2023.”
“The scarcity of rainfall in the Zambezi basin [where HCB operates] reduced water availability in the country’s main reservoirs (Corumana, Mavuzi and Chicamba), culminating in the 2024/25 hydrological year with the worst rainfall record in the last 43 years,” the report adds.
The energy shortage is at the centre of a dispute that will lead Mozal — the country’s largest industrial operation — to suspend activity on March 15, affecting around 25,000 direct and indirect jobs. Australian company South32 considers the energy tariff proposed for the Mozal aluminium smelter in Maputo “completely unsustainable,” and has announced its closure while not ruling out reactivating the plant if conditions change.
In a recent call with Australian investors — a transcript of which Lusa accessed on March 6 — covering the latest results of the group that operates Mozal and other smelters, chief executive Graham Kerr explained that the “only formal offer” for energy supply from Eskom was nearly $100 per MWh, when “outside China, less than 1%” of smelters have contracts above $50 per MWh.
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The proposal would make operations in Maputo — one of Africa’s largest smelters — “completely unsustainable,” as energy represents “one third of Mozal’s cost structure.” The smelter requires 950 MWh to operate 24 hours a day, currently still supplied by HCB via South Africa’s Eskom, whose supply contract expires this month. The maximum price accepted by South32 was $51: “For us, that was the limit. Eskom cannot match that and never came close.”
Kerr added that Mozambique’s official explanation is the drought at the HCB reservoir in Tete: “Around this time last year, they started telling us that, after two years of severe drought, they did not have the capacity to supply Mozal’s energy needs. It would probably take at least two years for the reservoir to refill and they also have some maintenance to carry out, meaning we will probably not have full power for the next two to four years.”
The plant enters suspension and maintenance on March 15 at an annual cost of $5 million, with a “closure and rehabilitation estimate” of $119 million, Kerr said, stressing that Mozal always worked “closely” with the Mozambican government.
“We would not consider moving to a full closure until the HCB energy contract and its future were clarified, because when they return to full operation, they will have a lot of energy and few customers. So this could become viable again in the future,” Kerr said, warning that the “challenge” of “restarting a smelter” is “very difficult.”
