According to the report, Russia may have recorded around 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 deaths, while Ukraine is estimated to have nearly 600,000 military personnel killed, wounded, or missing. Neither country releases full official figures, treating human losses as a state secret.
The Kremlin dismissed the study as “not credible,” reiterating that only Russia’s Ministry of Defense has the authority to disclose data on military casualties. CSIS based its estimates on interviews with Western and Ukrainian officials, as well as data collected by independent Russian media outlets and the BBC.
The report highlights that, in historical terms, Russian losses are exceptional, far exceeding those recorded during the war in Afghanistan and the conflicts in Chechnya. Although Russian casualties are estimated to be two to two-and-a-half times higher than Ukraine’s, the impact is particularly severe for Ukraine due to its much smaller population.
To offset losses, Moscow has relied on high salaries and expanded benefits to attract new recruits, including foreign nationals from Asia, Africa, and South America. Ukraine, meanwhile, is facing growing difficulties in mobilizing troops, with President Volodymyr Zelensky resisting lowering the minimum conscription age.
Despite the high number of casualties, Russian territorial gains have been limited. Since 2024, advances on the ground have been slow, with minimal progress in eastern Ukraine. Recent peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, held in Abu Dhabi, ended without significant breakthroughs, leaving the diplomatic stalemate intact.
