The forecast was made during a forum hosted by Banco Delta Asia on the outlook for the global economy and investment trends, where the academic framed the evolution of the Macao Special Administrative Region (MSAR) in an international context marked by uncertainty, but also by opportunities for open and integrated economies.
According to Chen, Macau’s growth trajectory should follow that of Hong Kong, benefiting from the development of industries associated with Artificial Intelligence, the strengthening of regional trade, and the gradual recovery of tourism, which continues to play a structural role in the local economy.
The transition to higher value-added sectors is seen as an essential factor in increasing economic resilience in the medium term.
At the macroeconomic level, the economist projects global economic growth of between 2.6% and 2.9% until 2026. For mainland China, he estimates expansion of between 4% and 5%, while Hong Kong’s economy is expected to grow between 2.8% and 3.2%. According to the academic, these indicators reflect a process of gradual adjustment of Asian economies in a context of geopolitical fragmentation and structural transformation of global value chains.
The professor identified four major challenges that will continue to influence global economic performance: geopolitical fragmentation, economic uncertainty, technological disruption, and environmental degradation. Despite these risks, he stressed that significant opportunities remain, particularly for regions with high economic connectivity and technological adaptability, such as Macau.
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In this context, the academic advocated greater diversification of foreign markets, highlighting Portuguese-speaking countries and ASEAN member states as strategic destinations for the expansion of companies in the region. He also advocated a more active role for public authorities in guiding economic and commercial development through policies that promote innovation and regional integration.
The situation of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) was also highlighted at the forum. The president of Banco Delta Asia, Stanley Au, warned of the persistent difficulties faced by SMEs in Macau, in an operating environment that remains challenging.
To mitigate these pressures, the local banking sector has been offering more flexible financing solutions, including temporary interest-only payment schemes, with the aim of alleviating liquidity constraints.
The integration of the Greater Bay Area was identified as one of the main drivers of growth in the medium term. Anthony Neoh, chief advisor to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, considered that growing uncertainty in US financial markets could favor the movement of capital to regions considered more stable and with technological potential, such as mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau.
Finally, economist Shusong Ba highlighted the role of Hong Kong and Macao in the internationalization of the renminbi, arguing that both regions are well placed to establish themselves as offshore financing and Chinese currency conversion centers, thereby strengthening their relevance in the regional financial system.
