“In 2029, we will enter a phase of super low birth rate,” warned the official, in her first address to the Legislative Assembly as the head of the portfolio. O Lam emphasized that this phenomenon “will have consequences on the labor force, the education system, and the sustainability of the social protection model.”
The official numbers are clear: in 2024, Macau recorded a fertility rate of only 0.58 children per woman — the lowest in history and below the global average forecast by the United Nations. At the same time, the proportion of elderly people is expected to rise — from 14.6% of the population in 2024 to 24.8% in 2041 — quickly surpassing international thresholds for a “super-aged society.”
Henry Lei, professor at the University of Macau, emphasizes that “a continued decline in the birth rate will likely have significant impacts on Macau’s social, economic, and political aspects.” From an economic standpoint, he warns of the impact on local labor supply, government tax revenue, and internal demand. Socially, he points to changes in family size, the dependency ratio, and population aging, which will have “substantial impacts on the social and economic policies that the MSAR Government will have to adopt,” he explained to PLATAFORMA.
Support for Families
In light of this scenario, the Government is proposing a new paradigm for family support. Among the announced measures is the creation of a child assistance subsidy of MOP 1,500 per month, intended for permanent resident children of Macau up to the age of three. This measure is expected to come into effect this summer and cover children born between 2022 and 2024. In parallel, the birth subsidy has been increased to MOP 6,500, and a medically assisted reproduction support program will be promoted.
Lou Shenghua, an academic at the Macao Polytechnic University, notes that low birth rates in Macau “may mean that more foreign workers will need to be imported in the future,” stressing that “there is no alternative given the shortage of local labor.” He notes that this need may differ from the expectations of the local population, but argues that as long as resident employment is safeguarded, the importation of labor will be inevitable. He also emphasizes that “the issue of foreign workers will likely be a source of social controversy in the long term.”
These initiatives are part of a broader policy of “protection across the life cycle,” aiming not only to encourage births but also to strengthen the care network for the elderly and other vulnerable groups. The Government also announced the creation of more care homes, including private ones, to meet growing demand. Currently, the average waiting time for a vacancy is around 16 months.
Strategic Pillars
In her LAG presentation speech, O Lam reaffirmed the commitment to building a “happy” and “dynamic” Macau, in line with the political guidelines outlined by President Xi Jinping. To that end, initiatives will be launched, such as the expansion of the community healthcare network, the creation of a 24-hour psychological support platform, and the increase of free education subsidies and support for low-income families.
Culture and sports also play a central role in the Executive’s strategy. Macau aims to position itself as a “window for cultural exchange” between China and the world, reinforcing the “East Asian Cultural City” brand. In sports, the goal of hiring European coaches to train young football players was announced, as part of efforts to boost the sport and strengthen ties with the Greater Bay Area.
