The Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture, O Lam, issued a warning in the Legislative Assembly: in just five years, Macau will officially enter a phase of “ultra-low fertility,” with a birth rate that is already — at 0.58 children per woman — the lowest in the world. At the same time, the elderly population is set to surge: by 2041, one in every four residents will be over the age of 65. This deep demographic shift isn’t just an alarming statistic — it’s a ticking time bomb that will inevitably transform the labor market.
There simply won’t be enough workers to sustain economic momentum — especially not the government’s new diversification plans — nor to meet the needs of an aging population. And here lies a reality that can no longer be ignored: Macau will necessarily have to continue — and increase — its importation of labor.
Just do the math: with a fertility rate of 0.58 and a rapidly aging population, fewer and fewer young people will enter the labor market — no 1,500-pataca subsidy will reverse that trend; and no natalist policy will resolve the situation in time. If we already rely on about 180,000 non-resident workers to maintain basic services and economic activity, how can we possibly sustain the current economy — let alone all the new projects for growth and diversification — with local labor alone? It’s not mathematically feasible.
Macau is, in effect, already experiencing full employment among its residents. And with the focus on the so-called four new industries — high-tech, modern finance, “big health,” and conventions and exhibitions — the workforce will have to come from somewhere. Without external reinforcements, there won’t be enough people to build, operate, serve, and, above all, innovate.
It’s a path that raises sensitive challenges: social integration, cultural identity, quality of training, and the balance between residents and non-residents. But it’s a path with few viable alternatives. The notion that the local population alone can sustain Macau’s economic dynamism is no longer realistic — and to be fair, it never truly was.
What’s at stake now is how to manage this dependency. How to ensure that the arrival of workers aligns with a long-term vision — a coherent policy with clear criteria that guarantees quality, stability, and integration.
Avoiding this conversation is merely delaying the inevitable; ignoring aging is a way of denying the future; and continuing to treat labor importation as an exceptional measure is a failure to grasp the scale of the transformation underway.
Macau needs a new “social pact” that acknowledges the future will be built not only with those who are already here… but also with those who are yet to come. But they will only come if the conditions are right — and currently, Macau’s labor import system is not attractive.
*Editor-in-Chief of PLATAFORMA.
