Globalisation has accustomed us to thinking of it as a sophisticated, flexible machine capable of absorbing shocks. Yet it depends on narrow passages that are vulnerable and dangerously irreplaceable. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important.
A decisive share of the world’s oil consumption passes through it, along with a crucial portion of the liquefied natural gas supplying Asian markets. It took only one month of disruption for its blockage to expose the fragility of the global economy.
When Hormuz shakes, the crisis ceases to be regional; energy prices rise, transport costs increase, industries are affected… and, in turn, global economic growth forecasts are revised downwards. Far from the strait, in Europe, inflation accelerated to 2.9%, while growth for the fourth quarter was revised down from 1.4 to 0.7%.
The system remains designed for immediate efficiency. The world economy has become extremely complex, yet it still rests on very basic vulnerabilities
Then there is the iceberg. For years, governments and markets have spoken of resilience, supply chain diversification, strategic autonomy and reducing critical dependencies. The truth is that the system remains built for immediate efficiency.
The global economy has become extremely complex, but it is still grounded in very basic vulnerabilities: straits, ports, shipping routes, raw materials… all dependent on fragile geopolitical balances.
Asia feels this exposure with particular intensity. Much of the energy that powers its factories, transport systems and daily life passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The moment we are living through points to an inconvenient truth: globalisation has also created fragilities — constantly exploited by those who dominate it. As long as the international economy remains dependent on chokepoints without alternatives, every local conflict may become a global shock. Fragility is no longer an occasional flaw in the system. It is part of how it functions.
P.S. I would like to leave a word of thanks to Paulo, Guilherme and the entire team for their trust and for everything we have built together. I am entering this new phase at PLATAFORMA, now as deputy director, with deep gratitude, a strong sense of responsibility and a determination to continue helping this project grow.
