The University of Macau (UM) estimates that the territory’s economy will grow between 20.5% and 44.1% this year, with a sharper rise in the second half of the year, the institution announced today.
“The economy will grow between 20.5% and 44.1%; exports of services will grow between 35.2% and 82.8%; and the final revenue of the Macau SAR [Special Administrative Region of Macau] Government will remain between 55.4 billion patacas and 66.1 billion patacas (6.3 billion euros and 7.5 billion euros), according to the UM’s Center for Studies and Department of Economics.
In the three scenarios outlined for growth, the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be between 47.7% and 67% of that recorded in 2019, i.e. before the covid-19 pandemic.
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The academics predict an increase in visitors this year, but warn there are “differences in the adaptability of Macau’s society and the willingness of foreigners” to travel to the city, which is why they outline three other scenarios.
In one, more cautious, Macau registers less than 11 million visitors in 2023, far from almost 40 million in 2019. In another, almost 18 million will arrive in the territory. The third scenario, more optimistic, points to the possibility of the Chinese special administrative region welcoming more than 21 million visitors.
Macau, which like China followed the ‘zero covid’ policy, announced in December the cancellation of most prevention and containment measures, after almost three years of strict restrictions.
With the easing of the measures, the city recorded 451,000 visitors during the week of the Lunar New Year, almost triple the 2022 figure.
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The average hotel occupancy rate was 85.7%, with a peak on the third day of the Lunar New Year (January 24) at 92.1%.
As for the unemployment rate, the UM study estimates it to be between 3.7% and 4%.
“The labor market is likely to be affected by the lagging effects of the pandemic in the short term and these will hamper the growth of tourism-related industries,” the university stresses.
Gaming revenue in Macau reached 11.58 billion patacas (1.31 billion euros) in January, the highest since the start of the covid-19 pandemic.
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Concessionaires in Macau have accumulated unprecedented losses since 2020 and the government has been forced to resort to the extraordinary reserve to respond to the crisis, as about 80% of government revenue comes from gambling taxes.
The gaming industry, the engine of the city’s economy, accounts for 55.5 percent of Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) and provides work for more than 80,000 people, or about 17 percent of the employed population.
*with Lusa
