The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects sub-Saharan African economies to experience an economic recession of 3.2% this year, which doubles the forecast made in April, which estimated a 1.6% drop in GDP.
According to the update of the World Economic Perspectives, released today in Washington, the IMF forecasts that African economies will have a 3.2% contraction of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due to the economic and health impacts of the covid-19 pandemic.
For oil-producing countries, forecasts are even more pessimistic, and also aggravate April’s estimates; thus, the IMF now expects a drop of 8.4%, which represents an increase of 0.8 points compared to the 7.6% recession predicted two months ago.
The update of the forecasts does not present new estimates for any African Portuguese-speaking country, anticipating only the changes for the largest economies, such as Brazil, which should have a drop in GDP of around 9.1%, which represents a worsening of 3.8 percentage points compared to initially forecast.
The decline in forecasts was already expected, as a month ago the director of the African department of the IMF, Abebe Selassie, had said that the reality was worse than the forecasts.
“This is one of the most challenging and difficult times ever, for the economy and for people,” said the IMF official during a ‘webinar’ organized by the British Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, on May 20.
