China’s consumer price index rose 1.3% in February compared to the same month in 2025, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics announced today.
This is the largest increase since January 2023 (2.1%), in a month that this year coincided with Lunar New Year holidays, which authorities had been counting on to stimulate consumption.
China has been subject for several years to deflationary pressures caused by weak domestic demand, production surpluses, a severe property crisis and high youth unemployment. Producers have been engaged in an aggressive price war to encourage purchases and reduce stock surpluses.
The 1.3% increase exceeds analysts’ forecasts surveyed by Bloomberg, which had pointed to 0.9%, and marks the fifth consecutive month of index growth.
Capital Economics economist Zichuan Huang downplayed the price rise, attributing it to “temporary factors, such as the easing of oil deflation and the volatility of food and tourism prices around the New Year.” He also noted that “tensions in the Middle East will continue to fuel inflation as long as global energy prices remain high.”
However, according to Zichuan, the disappointing results from the Two Sessions political gathering currently under way in Beijing regarding domestic demand “should curb any acceleration in inflation once tensions ease.”
China’s economy is seeking to regain the dynamism it had before the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2019-2020. Despite strong exports and a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion (€1.04 trillion) in 2025, it faces serious structural imbalances and trade pressure from the United States.
The Chinese government announced last week that it aims to achieve growth of between 4.5% and 5% in 2026 — the most modest target set since 1991. Stimulating domestic demand and reducing dependence on exports is one of the challenges outlined by the government and referenced in the 2026-2030 Five-Year Plan, currently being reviewed by thousands of regime representatives gathered in Beijing for the Two Sessions. On that occasion, the government set an inflation target of 2% for 2026.
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In recent months, authorities have taken steps to boost household spending, including a subsidy programme for electronics, home appliances and furniture, and had been counting on the Lunar New Year — a period when Chinese people consume and travel more — to give an additional push. The holidays this year had an exceptional official duration of nine days, with authorities previously announcing new measures to encourage families to spend, such as shopping vouchers.
