The world’s seventh largest economy—the second largest in the European Union—is, in fact, technically bankrupt. Worse still: telling the truth today is political suicide, because lies and illusions have, for decades, been the pillars of an electoralist and populist practice. In other words, liberal democracies are now, in part, what they accuse the far-right nationalists of being. Prime Minister François Bayrou falls because he admitted the deception: decades of deficit budgets, the collapse of the welfare state—and of French arrogance. The Brussels “politburo” has long been pretending all is well, while the International Monetary Fund admits it does not even have the financial resources to intervene in crises as large as those in France—or Italy, another ticking time bomb. In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz warns young people that they would be better off investing in the stock market than waiting for pensions that will never come. Ask a Chinese or Indian citizen today if they envy this European dream…
It is not forgivable—the arrogance with which these illusionists of productivity and responsibility treated the Portuguese or Greek crisis—while hiding their own shadow play. Above all, it is now clear how blind they were in selling their citizens the illusion that the postwar paradise was eternal: a beacon of universal values, technological leadership, university “know-how”… and the welfare state. Meanwhile, alternative regimes in Asia, led by China, actually grew—based on real wealth production, not delusions of grandeur.
Perhaps Europe can now face reality, and one day recover. The most liberal economists say it will first have to get much worse before it can get better. This is the famous “J-curve,” which implies letting everything rotten collapse, and from that compost planting the seeds of the future. The problem is they always forget the dead and wounded that this radical cure buries.
Two short-term consequences are more than obvious, regardless of the choices Europe makes from here on: first, the far right, nationalism, and protectionism will gain ground, because people reject life as it is; they feel the crisis in their wallets, the anxiety in their skin… and they want something else—anything else. Second, the “baby boom” generation, which after World War II reproduced and proliferated as if there were no tomorrow, now realizes that its children and grandchildren will be the punching bag in an ideological, technological, and military clash between China—and its allies—and an increasingly isolated United States. Today, Europe’s liberal democracies are like a tennis net, watching the ball pass back and forth; even if they act sensibly and tighten their belts, they must understand above all that they cannot keep deceiving voters every four years, or risk being rejected by their own citizens, exhausted by the illusion.
It is true that most of Asia’s population does not enjoy the same political freedoms and social rights—banners worth raising, which Europe does deserve credit for. Yet economic and even social rights are growing so exponentially in powers such as China that Europe’s illusion of superiority today fits into a schoolyard—or a corner of a history museum. As in all things, balance and common sense are required. Europe is the world’s largest market, with critical mass, know-how, and a long-standing presence in many different worlds and eras. That contribution matters, and the achievements in rights and freedoms are of great value. But to defend them requires prudence, true transparency, and political responsibility. What we see is that Bayrou spoke up—and was ousted. He was not the first—and will not be the last.
*Director General of Plataforma
