Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has released a stark assessment of the economic risks facing the African continent as the war in the Middle East continues to escalate in May 2026. The ratings agency identifies Mozambique as one of the most vulnerable economies on the continent, while positioning Angola among the most resilient due to its status as a net oil exporter.
According to S&P, Mozambique’s exposure is primarily driven by its heavy reliance on imported fuel and fertilizers, a dependency that has become critical following Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This maritime chokepoint, which previously handled 20% of global oil trade, has been effectively closed to international traffic since early March.
The resulting “energy-supply shock” has sent Brent crude prices surging to over $118 per barrel this month, with earlier peaks reaching $126. For Mozambique, these elevated costs are exacerbating inflationary pressures and straining fiscal reserves, threatening its sovereign credit rating.
In contrast, Angola and Nigeria are viewed as significantly more protected. As net exporters of crude oil, these nations benefit from the global price surge, which provides a windfall to their national budgets. However, S&P notes a persistent structural irony: because many of these oil-rich nations lack sufficient domestic refining capacity, they remain forced to import processed fuels at inflated market prices.
Read more about this topic: Mozambique says repayment to IMF as move to “restore market trust”
Despite this, Angola’s massive fuel subsidy program—which accounts for roughly 2.8% of its GDP compared to the continental average of 0.3%—serves as a unique, albeit expensive, buffer for its local consumers.
The regional crisis has also triggered what the UN World Food Program describes as a “grocery supply emergency.” The disruption of fertilizer shipments from the Middle East is expected to reduce domestic food production across Africa, potentially pushing millions into food insecurity.
S&P warns that while existing fertilizer stocks offered temporary relief in April, a prolonged conflict will likely lead to “stagflation”—a period of low growth coupled with high inflation—across energy-dependent African states.
Currently, the geopolitical situation remains volatile. The International Energy Agency has characterized the conflict as the greatest global energy security challenge in history, noting that the blockade has stranded hundreds of ships in the Persian Gulf and doubled the cost of jet fuel and diesel.
For Mozambique, Rwanda, and Egypt—the three countries cited as most exposed—the depth of the impact will ultimately depend on the duration of the blockade and the availability of concessional financing to bridge growing trade deficits.
