The World Bank has revised down its economic growth forecasts for all Portuguese-speaking African countries (PALOP) this year, with the exception of Guinea-Bissau, while also warning of rising inflation across these economies.
According to the latest Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Update released in Washington, Guinea-Bissau is now expected to grow 5.3%, slightly above the 5.2% forecast made in October last year.
In contrast, growth projections for the remaining PALOP countries have been downgraded. Angola is now expected to grow 2.4% (down from 2.6%), while Cabo Verde’s forecast was reduced from 5.2% to 4.8%.
São Tomé and Príncipe is projected to grow 2.9%, down from 4%, while Mozambique saw the sharpest revision, with expected growth cut from 3% to just 0.9%.
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Equatorial Guinea is expected to remain in recession, with its economy shrinking 3.5%, compared to an earlier projection of 0.4% growth.
The revised outlook, largely driven by the effects of the Middle East conflict, also points to a significant rise in inflation across these countries. Angola is expected to lead with inflation at around 15%, followed by São Tomé and Príncipe at 11%.
Inflation is projected at 7.5% in Mozambique, 6.2% in Equatorial Guinea, 5.8% in Guinea-Bissau, and 3.2% in Cabo Verde. All figures represent increases compared to October 2025 forecasts, with Guinea-Bissau’s inflation estimate nearly tripling from 2% to 5.8%.
On average, PALOP economies are expected to grow 2%, less than half the 4.1% forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole. The World Bank noted that around 60% of countries in the region (29 out of 47) have seen their 2026 growth forecasts revised downward.
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The report also highlights declining living standards, warning that 15 countries in the region will have per capita income below 2014 levels, with five countries—including Angola and Equatorial Guinea—seeing declines of more than 25%, largely due to dependence on oil exports or ongoing conflicts.
