Overall forecasts indicate that the Economic Prosperity Index for February to April 2026 will range from 6.1 to 6.3 points, maintaining a “stable” outlook. In the capital markets, while fundamental improvements have supported the valuations of major leisure companies, stock price trends among the six major gaming corporations have diverged and generally remain at five-year lows.
On the macroeconomic front, the broad money supply (M2) rose by 7.3% year-on-year to MOP 841.15 billion in December 2025, reaching a new high; hotel occupancy rates and visitor numbers have also entered “overheated” territory.
However, factors such as weak consumer confidence in Mainland China, a decline in per capita non-gaming spending by tourists, and slow asset price recovery indicate that the economic recovery remains unbalanced. Estimated Prosperity Index points for December 2025 and January 2026 are 6.4 and 6.2, respectively, suggesting a solid start but caution is warranted regarding internal and external challenges.
In the banking sector, effective management has reduced the non-performing loan ratio to below 5% by the end of last year, the lowest in a year and a half, alleviating asset quality pressures. The industry’s profits have also rebounded significantly, increasing by 92.72% to MOP 7.337 billion, successfully reversing four consecutive years of decline.
However, the loan-to-deposit ratio for local residents has decreased to 46.4%, indicating a more cautious lending approach by banks. Additionally, Fitch has reaffirmed Macau’s “AA” rating with a “stable” outlook, further bolstering market confidence.
Looking ahead over the next three months, the influx of tourists is expected to remain high due to the Lunar New Year effect, supporting a stable and positive economic outlook.
Recently, 90 institutions in Macau were selected for the Forbes Travel Guide, highlighting the region’s brand advantages in high-end tourism, which will help attract high-net-worth clientele and mitigate the impacts of the low travel season.
Based on these factors, the society maintains its forecast for the Economic Prosperity Index to range from 6.1 to 6.3 points from February to April this year, anticipating that the overall economy will remain “stable.”
