On June 20, I wrote that Sam Hou Fai would probably only go to Lisbon next year. Because of scheduling issues… and unresolved discomforts. The Chief Executive insisted on the short term and announced it for September; but it is now obvious that it will not be this year. The “scheduling difficulty” does not clarify whether there is indeed political sensitivity at play, or whether such a trip simply makes no sense before knowing what the Portuguese Prime Minister will come here to hear – and to say. Sam Hou Fai showed ambition; and in that he is right: it makes no sense to go to Portugal just to cut ribbons; which is why he listed important goals, such as attracting investment in science and technology. Perhaps what he did not fully grasp were the blockages created by the growing nationalist and security-driven agenda, which he embodies both personally and institutionally. What is certain is that a technological partnership brings economic and relational advantages with Macau/China; but also tension in the West.
Sam Hou Fai defends Macau; and he has strategic reason on his side – obviously outlined in Beijing – but he exposes himself by publicly announcing sensitive objectives for Lisbon, which certainly has its own bargaining chips… starting with the Joint Commission, which Macau has been postponing since Covid, perhaps because it foresees discomfort ahead: on one hand, Portugal is more interested in Chinese investment than in bringing in capital and scientific and technological know-how; on the other, it faces Atlantic pressure against rapprochement with Beijing. It is nonetheless curious that Sam Hou Fai realized he would have to postpone his visit to Lisbon while in Beijing, celebrating the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan. A ceremony that Xi Jinping used to show the world the strength of the bloc defending a new world order, at the side of Putin and Kim Jong-un. With Montenegro’s trip to Japan at stake (see page 9), it signals to Tokyo – and to the West – that he comes to China but does not align with that parade.
The scientific and technological axis is what best structures diversification and economic growth. China knows this well; which is why it moved from the model of low-cost mass production to innovation and added value. The curtain of ideological divergence hides the reality that most unsettles the West: the speed and scale of China’s technological upgrade highlight its ambition to lead a new world order. The “technological war” must be understood in this light; just as human rights have always been the beacon pointed at the rising production costs of the Asian tigers.
Sam Hou Fai wants a Lusitanian partnership in one of the most divisive issues in contemporary economic diplomacy: technological supremacy. The China/Portugal friendship has in Macau a solid launching pad; however, Portuguese diplomacy will have to navigate Western political orthodoxy, today focused on criticism of Beijing – and its alliance with Russia. Xi Jinping accuses the West of resurrecting the logic of the Cold War; and in that too, he is right. What is certain is that the wall exists; and it is difficult to tear it down.
On the bilateral front, the loss of relevance of the Portuguese community in Macau – and of the values dear to it – also restrains Lisbon; which today sees the Chief Executive more as Beijing’s envoy than as leader of the autonomous region. Worse still in Madrid, or Brussels, where there is not even historical sentiment. That debate takes place quietly, but in Lisbon today the discomfort with Macau’s security-driven nationalism is evident. Beijing knows the sensitivity well; just as it knows the technological agenda is divisive.
If one day Sam Hou Fai manages to align Lisbon with this, including investment in the Greater Bay Area, it will be excellent news. First, because Macau needs it badly; second, because it would mean Portugal had negotiated the return it wants in exchange; and finally, because China would have understood the sociopolitical environment that allows Macau to truly be attractive for Portuguese investment, know-how, and critical mass. In that context, Luís Montenegro also cannot just come here to cut ribbons; he really must measure whether he is right – and correct – in embracing a new strategic drive with Beijing. The window of opportunity exists and benefits both sides; but the problems are wedging the door shut.
*General Director of Plataforma.
