Brazilian President Lula da Silva maintains a five-point lead over his main rival, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, in a potential second-round presidential runoff, according to a poll released this Friday.
The survey, conducted by Datafolha, shows Lula would receive 48% of voting intentions in a potential runoff, against 43% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a scenario that remains stable compared to a poll conducted in June, despite fresh controversies that have marked the far-right senator’s pre-campaign.
In the first round, Lula would secure 40% of support and his rival, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022), would get 32%, while the remaining candidates fail to surpass 4% of voting intentions.
In third place is former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado, with 4%, followed by former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema and businessman Renan Santos, both with 3%, all within the poll’s margin of error.
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Regarding rejection rates, 48% of respondents said they would “under no circumstances” vote for Flávio Bolsonaro, while 46% expressed the same position regarding Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term.
According to the poll, the picture has remained largely stable since May, despite Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign facing several crises in recent weeks, including the release of a video by former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, in which she accused her stepson of having mistreated her.
According to the survey, the controversy may have particularly affected the senator’s support among women. Among female respondents, who make up 52% of the sample, Lula receives 50% of voting intentions in a potential runoff, against 40% for Flávio Bolsonaro.
Also weighing on the lawmaker are the conversations and ties he maintained with Daniel Vorcaro, former owner of Banco Master, who is currently imprisoned over alleged involvement in the largest financial fraud in the country’s history.
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The poll was conducted between July 22 and 23 with 2,004 voters across 139 Brazilian municipalities and has a margin of error of two percentage points.
