France’s public health agency sharply revised its estimate of the toll from last month’s record-breaking heat wave on Wednesday, now attributing at least 5,700 more deaths than would normally be expected during the period.
Public Health France found that regions affected by the heat between June 17 and July 2 recorded 21,674 deaths from all causes, well above the 15,910 that statistical models based on past years would have predicted for the same stretch without extreme heat. That gap of 5,764 deaths represents what the agency classifies as excess mortality tied to the heat wave.
The 36% jump above expected mortality makes this the deadliest heat event in France since 2003, when an estimated 15,000 people died during a similarly historic heat wave.
This year’s event brought France its two hottest days on record, June 24 and 25, with the national average temperature reaching 30°C (86°F) and overnight lows also setting records, while some areas saw daytime highs climb past 40°C (104°F). More than half of the excess deaths were concentrated in and around the peak of that heat, a three-day span from June 25 to 27.
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Health officials described the episode as extraordinary given how early in the year it struck, how intense it was, and how long it lasted, noting that it exposed nearly the entire population to dangerous heat while schools and workplaces were still fully operating. Across Europe more broadly, the same early and severe heat wave is estimated to have caused more than 10,000 excess deaths at its peak, based on data still being compiled from various countries.
Within France, the Paris region bore the brunt of it, logging nearly 2,000 more deaths than expected, an increase of roughly 80% over normal levels. Funeral homes in the capital reported running out of space to store bodies awaiting burial or cremation, with some forced to turn families away.
Of the more than 21,600 total deaths recorded, close to half occurred in hospitals, which saw a surge of patients suffering heat-related conditions. Roughly a third of deaths happened at home, with most of the remainder occurring in nursing homes and other elder-care facilities.
The updated toll marks a significant jump from the agency’s earlier estimate of around 2,000 additional deaths for the week of June 22 to 28, which had been considered the height of the heat wave both in France and across much of Europe.
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Officials cautioned that the figures will be refined further as more complete data comes in later this year, and noted that the true toll is likely undercounted, since many heat-related deaths, such as a heat-triggered heart attack in an older or already vulnerable person, are often recorded on death certificates without any mention of heat as a contributing factor.
