Global air traffic is projected to grow at an average rate of 3.9% per year over the next two decades, doubling current figures to reach 10 billion passengers by 2045. The surge in demand will require the delivery of 42,060 new aircraft, Airbus announced today during the presentation of its 2026–2045 Global Market Forecast (GMF).
“We are going to see a sector growing at nearly 4% annually for the next 20 years,” summarized Antonio da Costa, Airbus Director of Market Analysis and Forecasts.
For the current year, Airbus expects global air traffic to close with a 2.1% growth rate, a figure Ignacio Serna, Airbus Product Marketing Manager, noted aligns with recent reports from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
To satisfy long-term demand, the European aerospace manufacturer estimates that the global aviation sector will need 42,060 new deliveries by 2045. Of these, 19,820 will replace aging fleets, while 22,240 will expand existing operational capacity. Together with 3,490 current aircraft expected to remain in service, the global commercial fleet will reach 45,550 planes by 2045.
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The fleet breakdown reflects a distinct shift toward sustainability and cost control:
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Single-Aisle Aircraft: Will account for 81% of all new deliveries.
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Wide-Body Aircraft: Will make up the remaining 19% of the market.
Airbus attributes this distribution to airline demand for single-aisle models that lower operating costs, optimize fuel efficiency, and minimize carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) emissions.
This is evident in Airbus’s own 9,000-aircraft order backlog, where over 70% of the A320 family orders are for the high-efficiency A321neo and A321XLR models designed for lower-cost medium- and long-haul routes. Driven by fleet aging—a process accelerated post-pandemic—the share of latest-generation aircraft in global service is expected to jump from 39% today to nearly 100% by 2045.
The report emphasizes that short-term industry disruptions, including regional conflicts and volatile fuel prices, are failing to dampen long-term aviation demand. Instead, global growth is being propelled by structural economic and demographic shifts.
The global middle class—identified as the demographic most likely to travel by air—is projected to grow by 1.4 billion people (a 34% increase) by 2045, while urban populations will expand by 1.3 billion. Rather than expanding through massive megacities, Airbus expects air traffic to grow through the emergence of new connections between small and medium-sized urban centers.
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Consequently, the center of gravity for global aviation will continue its gradual shift toward the Asia-Pacific region. Rapidly expanding economies like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are expected to drive the majority of global market growth, fueled by rising GDPs, urbanization, and an increase in leisure travel to visit family.
