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Macau’s economy in 2026 forecasted to be “stable and positive”

The Macau Economic Association (AEM) anticipates gradual growth for this year, driven by the tourism and leisure sectors. The president of AEM and author of the study, Joey Lao, expects "strong resilience" in the tourism and leisure industries, contributing to economic growth in 2026.

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The AEM projects an increase in tourist market promotion activities and the continuous enrichment of products aimed at tourists, as well as a “growing diversity” of visitors to the region. It also highlights that industry development will benefit from relevant government policies.

The upcoming Lunar New Year and other festive periods are expected to “directly boost the number of visitor arrivals, hotel occupancy rates, and gross gaming revenues, further solidifying the foundations for overall economic stability,” generating peaks in visitor flows, according to the analysis of the Legislative Assembly deputy.

However, the AEM foresees challenges for local businesses in the commercial sector, noting that “amid socio-economic transformations, persistent development imbalances and profoundly complex changes in the business environment have resulted in a mixed economic outlook.”

The wave of satellite casino closures at the end of last month has raised public concerns about a potential operational crisis for shops and restaurants, many of which depend on casino patrons for their business.

The government has assured support for affected businesses, particularly in the NAPE and ZAPE areas, by organizing themed events during the festive period.

In Joey Lao’s opinion, regarding internal demand in Macau, consumer confidence among local residents has not fully recovered, which may limit short-term recovery in retail, dining, and related sectors.

The economist warns that there is still a need to increase the number of international visitors, who accounted for only 6.6% of total arrivals in Macau during the first 11 months of last year, according to his analysis. “The proportion remains relatively low, and the persistent imbalance poses risks of volatility for local tourism activities during off-peak periods.”

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