We are close to learning about Macau’s Third Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). Looking to the horizon, where economic diversification is projected for 2035, the space for diagnoses and conceptual architecture is practically exhausted; what is now being tested is the capacity for execution.
The Second Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) was shaped by exceptional circumstances. The pandemic imposed a containment agenda, focused on social stability, job preservation, and the soundness of public finances. In parallel, institutional foundations were laid for a gradual transformation of the economy, with the “1+4” model becoming the benchmark. The current context is different; even so, the local economy has not yet learned to live in the post-pandemic market.
Economic diversification presupposes a State capable of adapting, not just regulating or, worse, falling into the error of trying to mold it.
In this context, the Third Plan will not be evaluated by the ambition of its intentions, but by the quality of its implementation. Diversification is not about accumulating sectors identified in strategic documents; it’s about generating effective economic value, skilled employment, and a more pluralistic productive base. As this is the penultimate cycle before 2035, any delay will have accumulated costs that are difficult to correct in the final plan.
Regional integration, particularly with Hengqin, constitutes the greatest test of the credibility of this transition. Despite the strategic centrality attributed to it, structural obstacles persist, making many of the stated objectives difficult to materialize within a foreseeable timeframe. The gap between institutional ambition and concrete results remains significant. The Third Plan will have to reduce this gap, replacing extended expectations with clear and verifiable operational goals.
The ongoing administrative reform is inseparable from this challenge. More than procedural efficiency, institutional flexibility is required. An administration excessively dependent on rigid frameworks limits the capacity to build public-private partnerships adjusted to the real dynamics of the markets. Economic diversification presupposes a state capable of adapting, not merely regulating or, worse, falling into the error of trying to mold it.
A conscious and sincere reassessment of the role of concessionaires is also necessary. They will continue to be central players, but diversification cannot remain excessively dependent on them. Diversification also means diversifying producers, expanding the business base and reducing structural dependencies.
It is important to understand that this cycle will define the scope of the next. If you fail to achieve it, the final plan will be an exercise in belated correction.
*Executive Director of Plataforma
