Ratings agency Fitch has forecast that Macau’s economic growth will stand at 4.5 per cent in 2026, amid “a normalisation in tourism flows”. In a report released on Tuesday, the agency said it expects the SAR’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 4.6 per cent this year, a downward revision from the 6.9 per cent forecast made in March.
According to official data, Macau’s GDP grew by 8 per cent in the third quarter of this year. For the first three quarters, Macau’s economy expanded by 8 per cent. In the first 11 months of 2025, the gaming sector recorded revenues of MOP 226.5 billion, 8.6 per cent more than in the same period last year.
Fitch projects full‑year growth of 4.6 per cent in 2025, a downward revision from its 6.9 per cent forecast released in March The agency forecasts that Macau’s casinos will end the year with revenues reaching around 88% of the level recorded in 2019, before the economic crisis triggered by the covid‑19 pandemic.
“We expect that gaming tourism will continue to drive economic growth, albeit at a slower pace, because weaker economic conditions in Mainland China will increasingly weigh on Chinese tourists,” the agency warned.
Even so, Fitch believes that this caution among visitors will be “partially offset by favourable visa policies, continued investment in non‑gaming sectors and improvements in tourism infrastructure”. The agency stressed that Macau’s Policy Address for 2026, presented in November, highlighted economic diversification and “strengthened cooperation” to develop the neighbouring cooperation zone of Hengqin.
Fitch said that, thanks to casino taxes, Macau will continue to run a budget surplus in 2026 and noted that its financial reserves are already sufficient to cover six years of expenditure. According to official data, at the end of September the reserve held assets worth MOP 658.7 billion, the highest level in more than four years.
In the first 10 months of 2024, taxes on Macau’s casinos accounted for 83.3 per cent of total public revenue.
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