The study, included in the economic bulletin released on Tuesday, concludes that the emigration rate for 25 to 34-year-olds was 18.2% in 2021, based on the Census, compared to 19.2% in 2001 and 13.5% in 2011.
The Bank of Portugal pointed out that “young emigrants in 2001 still reflect emigration flows before 25 April 1974, including family decisions to emigrate”, so “a significant proportion of the young emigrants observed in 2001 will have left the country while still a child”.
On the other hand, “the figures for 2021 are influenced by the strong emigration flows between 2011 and 2014, during the Period of Financial Economic Assistance”, although “even subtracting from young emigrants in 2021 a major factor for the “excess emigration” between 2011-14, estimated by comparing these flows with the average of the following years, this would imply a decrease in the emigration rate in this segment of less than 2 percentage points”.
Looking at the breakdown between age groups, between 15 and 24, with a high percentage of the population still at school, “the increase in the emigration rate is substantial”, with only 6.6% of this segment emigrating in 2001 and, by 2021, this percentage had almost doubled to 12%.
“This evolution reflects, on the one hand, the growing number of young Portuguese studying abroad, particularly in the European Union. On the other hand, the decision to emigrate comes early in the life cycle of young people, both for those finishing compulsory schooling and for those with higher education,” the Bank of Portugal said.
This analysis also highlights the education and qualifications of young people. In 2001, 12% of emigrants had completed higher education and 53% had not completed secondary education. In 2021, the proportion of emigrants with higher education was 31% and the proportion without secondary education had fallen to 35%.
“Thus, the decision to emigrate does not seem to be biased towards young people with higher qualifications, given that the most qualified young people are less represented among emigrants than among young people living in Portugal,” notes the Bank of Portugal.
There is also comparative data with Europe, which shows that the rate of young Portuguese emigration to European countries is one of the highest in Europe. In terms of destinations, young people went to France (48,000), the United Kingdom and Switzerland (over 30,000).
It’s worth remembering that this issue marked one of the disagreements between the government and Mário Centeno, then governor of the Bank of Portugal.
Centeno defended Portugal’s ability to retain recent graduates, while the Finance Minister reiterated that Portugal has a “problem retaining and attracting qualified young people”, which is one of the reasons for moving forward with measures aimed at young people, such as the IRS Jovem.
Mário Centeno defended the fact that Portugal manages to retain recent graduates, pointing out that the discussion around qualifications has been based on “misleading figures” and signalled that it can be said that “Portugal has managed to be a net recipient of graduates”.
The finance minister pointed out, however, that “public policies must be based on data, empirical evidence and facts”.
“If we only consider the labour force between the ages of 18 and 35, we have a significant drop in the number of graduates,” said Miranda Sarmento. “By 2023, Portugal would only have 611,000 graduates, which means that we have reduced the number of young people with at least one degree by 42,000,” he said at the time.
He noted that Portuguese universities graduate between 50,000 and 60,000 a year, plus master’s and doctorates, totalling 80,000, and that “between 2021 and 2023 we will lose 42,000 young people with higher education qualifications”, despite having graduated 80,000.
Platform with Lusa
