In the “OCBC Economic Outlook 2H 2025” media briefing held in Hong Kong on Tuesday, experts from the Singapore-headquartered banking and financial services group revised their full-year forecast upwards from an earlier projection of 4.6 per cent, following a better-than-expected 5.3 per cent gross domestic product growth in the first half of 2025. This performance was underpinned by robust external demand, continued upgrading in high-tech industries, and policy support from the consumer trade-in programme, the economists noted. Net exports contributed 31.2 per cent to GDP growth in the first half, up from 30.3 per cent in 2024.
However, “headwinds are gathering for China’s economy.” Tommy Xie, head of Asia Macro Research at OCBC, said the recovery of the property market had stalled again due to still weak income growth and expectations, as well as a limited wealth effect. He added that “China’s efforts to reflate its economy hit the bottleneck.”
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