This week marks one year since I returned to Macao, after being away for five years. Coming back is always an exercise between the memory we keep and the reality we find. The city I have rediscovered is, at the same time, more open and more dependent; more integrated and more exposed.
The most evident change is felt in the freedom of movement across the border. The ease with which one can now cross the border to mainland China has transformed consumption habits and family routines. Integration into the Greater Bay Area has shifted from being a political concept to becoming a daily practice. In just a few minutes, we gain access to a wider and, above all, cheaper offering.
This freedom is, without a doubt, a victory. It broadens horizons, reduces costs, and increases options. For many families, shopping in Zhuhai represents a significant savings in a context of pressured incomes and high local prices. Mobility has become a tool for economic rationality.
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Over the past year, many traditional stores, restaurants, and even supermarkets have closed. We cannot attribute everything to cross-border competition; there are structural factors, changes in consumption patterns, and the size of the market itself, but it would be naive to ignore the impact of price differences. When crossing the border becomes financially worthwhile, local businesses pay the price.
Macau has always thrived on circulation: of people, of capital, of opportunities. The difference is that today, this circulation is asymmetric. We remain highly dependent on external sources to generate revenue – essentially through gambling – and at the same time, we see an increasing portion of consumption escaping to other places.
It is in this context that the official discourse on economic diversification gains particular relevance. The narrative remains consistent: reducing dependence on gambling, investing in new industries, promoting innovation, and integrating into the national strategy. On paper, there is little to dispute. In practice, however, the changes are subtle. The economic structure remains essentially unchanged. The dominance of gambling continues; alternatives emerge as complements rather than true transformation.
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Diversification does not mean organizing more events or multiplying forums with new labels. It means creating value chains, attracting talent, and fostering a business network capable of competing beyond the domestic market. It ensures that regional integration does not merely signify external consumption but also internal production on a larger scale.
The new Macao that I have found is therefore paradoxical. More connected than ever before, but still searching for a new model. More free in movement, but vulnerable at its economic foundations.
